A Carbon Brief analysis showed how the overall levels of gas and greenhouse in China have been stable or decreasing in the last year and a half.
China may soon reach its peak in greenhouse gas emissions. The use of the conditional is necessary, as medium- to long-term data will need to be verified, and it is not currently possible to predict a specific date. However, current trends leave room for optimism. This is according to an analysis by Carbon Brief, which found that China’s total emissions have remained flat or have declined over the past 18 months.
As early as the first quarter of the current year, China recorded a decline in emissions for the first time, driven by the growth of renewable energy generation. This marked the first time such a decrease occurred independently of electricity demand, which in the same period rose significantly, making the data even more meaningful.
From an absolute perspective, the decline remains limited and does not significantly affect the planet’s overall emissions trajectory. Its political weight, however, is considerable. “An increase or decrease of less than 1 per cent may not make a major difference in terms of targets, but it carries great symbolic importance,” Carbon Brief notes in its report.
Some sectors appear more virtuous than others in China. The transport sector recorded a 5 per cent reduction in emissions in the third quarter of 2025 compared with the same period the previous year, largely due to the spread of electric vehicles. Emissions from steel and cement production remained stable, despite a 6.1 per cent increase in demand, which effectively represents a positive outcome. By contrast, the chemical industry registered a sharp increase in emissions.
Despite these trends, the emissions reduction pledge announced by the Beijing government in September has been widely regarded as disappointing. The commitment refers to a reduction of between 7 and 10 per cent by 2025, without providing further details.
In absolute terms (though not per capita), China remains the world’s largest emitter of CO₂, responsible for around 30 per cent of global emissions, equivalent to approximately 15.6 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent, according to UN data. Historically, however, the United States still ranks first in cumulative emissions.
As for electricity generation, despite the massive expansion of renewables, China still relies on coal for around 60 per cent of its power production—by far the most polluting and climate-damaging energy source. The road toward completing the ecological transition, therefore, remains long.
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