Renewables: the astonishing growth in low-income countries

A report by the think tank Ember highlights the true boom of renewable energy in the 74 countries of the Climate Vulnerable Forum.

If the entire world followed the recent example of the poorest and most vulnerable countries facing the impacts of climate change, we would probably be in a less dramatic situation — at least when it comes to the development of renewable energy. This is explained by a study published by the British think tank Ember, which highlighted the “extraordinary” progress achieved by 74 member states of the Climate Vulnerable Forum, an organization of countries most affected by the climate crisis.

Solar power: one third of Climate Vulnerable Forum countries have surpassed the United States

These countries — located in Africa, Asia, South America and the Pacific — account for just 3.9 per cent of global Gdp, despite being home to 1.7 billion people (around 500 million of whom still lack access to electricity). For them, the development of renewables represents an opportunity to break free from conditions that are often marked by serious economic and social underdevelopment.

Il crollo dei costi sta spingendo le rinnovabili nei paesi a basso reddito
The astonishing growth of renewables in low-income countries is due to the lowering prices © Ember

According to Ember’s report, one third of these states has already surpassed the United States in terms of the share of electricity generated from solar power within their national energy mixes. Around ten of them also outperform the US in terms of the share in final energy consumption (which stands at 20 per cent in the United States). These figures may even be underestimated, as statistics are often incomplete, and 80 per cent of the forum’s member states have imported at least three times more solar panels since 2017 than their officially installed capacity suggests.

“In recent years, we have witnessed something almost miraculous”

In Namibia, for example, the share of electricity generated from solar power increased from 6 per cent to 35 per cent between 2017 and 2024. In Morocco, wind energy has doubled since 2018. In Ethiopia, the share of electric vehicles in the car fleet rose from 1 per cent to 6 per cent. Similarly, in Vietnam, 250,000 electric bikes and scooters were sold in 2024 alone.

pannelli-solari
The drop in solar panel prices has enabled exponential growth in renewable energy markets in low-income countries © iStock

“Over the past two to three years, we have witnessed something almost miraculous,” said Daan Walter, director at Ember. “The world’s poorest nations, often portrayed as lagging behind in the energy transition, have made huge strides.”

The key factor: the dramatic drop in renewable energy costs

What has enabled less developed countries to benefit from renewable energy is above all one factor: the dramatic drop in costs in recent years. Combined with the ease of installing especially small-scale systems, this has allowed clean energy sources to spread rapidly.

Even for larger infrastructure, Ember points out that investments required for a solar farm are now lower than those needed for coal or gas plants. “For emerging economies, this is the key element,” Walter adds. “We are living through a crucial moment. Countries with limited resources are no longer forced to choose fossil fuels.” This also means freeing themselves from a heavy financial dependence.

Il processo di elettrificazione nei paesi del Climate vulnerable forum
Il processo di elettrificazione nei paesi del Climate vulnerable forum @ Ember

The process of electrification and energy efficiency is benefiting from the same trend: the report highlights that over the past fifteen years, prices have also dropped significantly for LED light bulbs, air conditioners, refrigerators and electric cooktops — with reductions ranging from 27 to 95 per cent.

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