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Wars in China, Syria and the oil price shock in the list of top 10 global risks. And Donald Trump too

The election of the billionaire candidate Donald Trump to the White house is riskier than the UK leaving the European Union, Greece leaving the euro zone and an armed clash in the South China Sea, analysts say.

The experts at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) who assess global threats for the British economic magazine The Economist put Donald Trump winning the US presidency on the list of the top 10 global risks along with armed clashes in Chinese seas, oil price shocks, interventions in Syria and euro zone break-ups.

 

The EIU compares his election even to terrible threats such as jihadi terrorism, the hard landing of the Chinese economy, Russia’s interventions in Syria and Ukraine that could cause a new “cold war”.

 

Donald Trump is one of the top 10 risks facing the world

Even though the institution doesn’t think that Donald Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton in November’s US presidential elections, the event was listed as one of the major threats facing the world.

 

The ranking uses a scale from one to 25. Trump garnered a rating of 12, the same level of risk as “the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilising the global economy”. According to the EIU Trump’s victory could threat global economy and increase the risks to security in the United States.

 

The list of the top 10 risks facing the world according to the Economist Intelligence Unit

The ranking uses a scale of one (lowest risk) to 25 (highest risk).

 

  1. China experiences a hard landing (20)
  2. Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and Syria precede a new “cold war” (16)
  3. Currency volatility culminates in an emerging markets corporate debt crisis (16)
  4. Beset by external and internal pressures, the EU begins to fracture (15)
  5. “Grexit” is followed by a euro zone break-up (15)
  6. Donald Trump wins the US presidential elections (12)
  7. The rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilises the global economy (12)
  8. The UK votes to leave the EU (8)
  9. Chinese expansionism prompts a clash of arms in the South China Sea (8)
  10. A collapse in investment in the oil sector prompts a future oil price shock (4)

 

The election of Donald Trump could lead the United States to a trade war, a crisis with Mexico that, according to the Republican candidate, must pay for a wall that he wants to erect on the US-Mexican border to keep illegal immigrants out of the US, and be helpful for extremist recruiters in the Middle East who would be “stoked up by his anti-Muslim rhetoric”. The election could have a negative political impact: “the innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr. Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress – reads the report – albeit such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking”.

 

“It’s highly unusual, and I don’t think we ever have done it where we’ve had a single politician be the center of our risk items,” Robert Powell, global risk briefing manager at the Economist Intelligence Unit told.

Translated by

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