Ahead of Cop 26, the International Energy Agency outlines the path to follow to meet the challenge of climate neutrality by 2050.
Inventing colours without inventing new ones. That is the thought that comes naturally when reading the latest report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) "Net zero by 2050: a roadmap for the global energy sector", published just a few hours ago: not a single shade is missing to paint the canvas of climate neutrality by 2050, yet some colours seem new, brighter, more intense.
The Agency has produced the world's first study that methodically maps the road to net zero emissions and limiting the rise in temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as set out in the Paris Agreement. The roadmap establishes the need to rapidly increase the share of energy produced from renewable sources while, at the same time, reducing investment in fossil fuels and coal-fired power plants until it is eliminated entirely.
By pairing already well-established assumptions with the new trends that are reshaping the energy system, a picture emerges that feels fresh: the Agency cites carbon capture, storage and utilisation systems, hydrogen and the growing flexibility of the energy system, without overlooking concerns about cybersecurity in relation to energy supply and universal access to clean energy. Because the climate commitments made by governments so far, the IEA highlights, are not enough to bring global greenhouse gas emissions to zero.
The transformation the Agency offers a glimpse of will require an effort of a scale and speed unprecedented in history. Executive director Fatih Birol describes it in a press release as the "greatest challenge that humanity has ever faced" towards "a brighter future".
The roadmap is based on the modelling tools and expertise the Agency has developed over the past four decades. It sets out more than 400 milestones to guide the global journey towards climate neutrality. The transformation will have to begin with the energy system — that is, the way energy is produced, transported and used globally. It will be driven by investment in cleaner technologies, which are indispensable for creating new jobs and stimulating global growth. In order to bring electricity to around 785 million people currently disconnected from the grid, 40 billion dollars per year will need to be invested — roughly equivalent to 1 per cent of the annual average of investment in the energy sector. Provided that the entire world adheres precisely to the roadmap.
Among the priorities, as the IEA has repeatedly stressed over the years, is an end to investment in new projects linked to fossil fuels and new coal-fired power plants. By 2035, internal combustion engine cars must no longer be sold, and by 2040 the electricity sector will become the beating heart of the energy system.
In the short term, the report calls for the immediate and massive deployment of all clean and efficient technologies for energy production, alongside a global push for innovation. Specifically, it requires the installation each year, from now until 2030, of new solar photovoltaic capacity of 630 gigawatts (GW) and new wind capacity of 390 GW. These figures would represent a quadrupling of the record results achieved in 2020. For solar alone, this means installing roughly every day a photovoltaic park as large as the biggest one in existence today. Greater efforts will then need to be directed towards increasing energy efficiency by 4 per cent per year until 2030 — approximately three times the average recorded since the early 2000s.
Between now and 2030, 5 trillion dollars per year will need to be invested in clean energy, with a further increase of 0.4 percentage points per year linked to the growth of global gross domestic product (GDP). This is the conclusion of a joint analysis with the International Monetary Fund. The increase in public and private spending will create millions of jobs, for example in the sectors of energy efficiency, engineering, manufacturing and construction. All of this will drive an increase in global GDP of 4 per cent in 2030 compared with the current trend.
The technologies available today are fundamental in cutting greenhouse gas emissions between now and 2030, but looking ahead to 2050, those currently at prototype or demonstration stage will prove decisive. For this reason, public spending on research and development must increase rapidly and become a priority on energy and climate agendas around the world. Particularly significant, the Agency stresses, will be the advances made in the fields of storage, electrolysers for the production of green hydrogen, and carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) systems.
"The scale and speed of the efforts required" to achieve climate neutrality are unprecedented in history, Birol adds, but they are needed to demonstrate that the 2050 target is not unattainable. Nothing can be achieved without "strong and credible policy actions by governments, backed by much greater international cooperation." The report presents itself as an information tool for the high-level negotiations to be held next November in Glasgow at Cop 26, the United Nations Conference of the Parties on climate change.
The report reflects some of the priorities set out in the agenda for the upcoming Cop, such as the urgency of "accelerating the deployment of clean technologies across all sectors and phasing out coal power and polluting vehicles," Cop26 President-Designate Alok Sharma states in a note. The Agency says it is ready to support individual governments "in drafting national and regional roadmaps, to provide guidance and assistance in their implementation, and to promote international cooperation to accelerate the energy transition worldwide." True to its nature, "each country will need to design its own strategy," Birol emphasises. Advanced economies are expected to reach the coveted "net zero" before developing ones.
What would a transition of such scale and speed be without the support and active participation of everyone? The transition "touches and depends on people," Birol continues; "it must be fair and inclusive, leaving no one behind." If achieved, it will reduce air pollution to such an extent as to prevent 2.5 million deaths every year. To this end, it will be necessary to ensure that developing countries receive "the financial and technological know-how they need to build their own energy systems and sustainably meet the needs of their populations and their growing economies."
In 2050, the world will look completely different from today. Energy demand will be 8 percentage points lower, the economy will generate twice as much wealth, and 2 billion more people will inhabit the planet. At least 90 per cent of electricity will be produced from renewable sources — 70 per cent from wind and solar photovoltaic, with the remainder from nuclear energy. Fossil fuels will lose their dominant share of global supply: from the current four-fifths to one-fifth. They will be used almost exclusively in products such as plastics and in those sectors where alternatives are scarce.
Along the road to carbon neutrality, new challenges related to energy supply security will emerge alongside the better-known challenges linked to fossil fuel sourcing, given the progressive electrification of our cities. The contraction of natural gas production will have long-term implications. No new oil and natural gas fields will be needed, and supplies will become increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few.
Furthermore, the stagnant linearity of the economy will drive a strong dependence on critical minerals, used in the key technologies and infrastructures for clean energy, with serious risks of price volatility and supply disruptions — both formidable enemies of the transition. "Governments need to stimulate investment in batteries, digital solutions and electricity grids that reward flexibility and reliable electricity supply," Birol concludes. "The rapidly growing role of critical minerals calls for new international mechanisms to ensure both the timely availability of supplies and sustainable production."
All the colours of this palette are therefore present: renewable energy, energy efficiency, carbon storage, hydrogen and behaviours. Every day on which one fails to play one's part is a wasted day, a colour left unused.
The World Resources Institute, a global organisation established by the MacArthur Foundation, has published five observations on the Agency's roadmap. First, it highlighted how cautious the Agency has been about increasing electricity production from intermittent sources. The possibility of "pathways that feature a higher share of electricity from renewables" was set aside by the Agency on the grounds that it would entail higher costs — a position that, according to the Institute, "deserves greater attention" given that "the Agency tends to be
