Air pollution from coal and oil has consequences for health that are far too severe. This is the finding of researchers from Harvard, Birmingham, Leicester and UCL universities.
In 2018, approximately 8.7 million people died as a result of exposure to air pollution from fossil fuels. The percentage of total deaths occurring over the course of the year was extremely high: between 18 and 21.5 per cent, roughly one in five. These are the findings of a research team led by Harvard University, in collaboration with UCL, the University of Birmingham and the University of Leicester. Their paper, published in Environmental Research, arrives at a total estimate more than double that — already alarming — of 4.2 million deaths worldwide, proposed in 2019 by the medical journal The Lancet.
Previous research had calculated PM2.5 concentrations on the basis of satellite and surface observations. In doing so, however, it was unable to distinguish fine particulate matter caused by the combustion of coal and oil from that produced by other phenomena, such as wildfire smoke. This study differs in that it makes use of the 3D model Geos-Chem, developed by Harvard University, which allows the planet to be divided into grid cells with a minimum size of 50 by 60 kilometres, monitoring the air pollution levels of each one. The researchers also fed into the system emissions from industry, air traffic, land transport and other human activities, calibrating them against atmospheric characteristics. They then developed a model linking atmospheric particulate concentrations to health outcomes.
The final toll is 8.7 million deaths per year — more than those caused by cigarette smoking and malaria combined. "We were initially very hesitant when we got these results because they are jaw-dropping, but we are finding more and more about the impact of this air pollution," explains Eloise Marais, professor at UCL and co-author of the research. "It is ubiquitous. The more we look for its impacts, the more we find." According to another analysis cited by the Guardian, if we were to eliminate emissions from fossil fuels, life expectancy would increase, on average, by more than one year.
The study focuses on PM2.5, fine particulate matter with a diameter so small that it can reach the pulmonary alveoli and enter the bloodstream. "Our study adds to the growing body of scientific evidence that air pollution from continued dependence on fossil fuels is detrimental to global health. We can't in good conscience continue to rely on fossil fuels, when we know there are such severe health effects and cleaner, viable alternatives," comments Eloise Marais.
It is no coincidence that the countries deriving the most energy from fossil fuels are also those paying the most dramatic consequences in terms of health. Mortality rates are indeed lower in South America and Africa, rise to one death in ten in Europe and the United States, and reach a striking figure of one in three in eastern Asia, including China.
