Electric vehicles are ready to make a great leap, with numbers rising from 11 to 145 million by the end of the decade. This would help wipe out demand for millions of barrels of oil every day. The International Energy Agency has published its first report on electric mobility, which highlights the sector's enormous potential while also identifying the aspects that are limiting its full explosion: even more decisive action is needed from governments, along with significant investment in batteries and charging infrastructure.

A market in ferment despite the pandemic

If the world's leading countries decided to encourage the production of low-carbon vehicles — sufficient to stay within global climate targets — the number of electric vehicles in circulation worldwide in 2030 could rise to as many as 230 million. Current market trends already speak for themselves: the Agency notes that in the first quarter of this year, sales of battery-powered cars, vans, trucks and buses exceeded the 2020 figure by 2.5 times, when the pandemic caused a severe recession in the global economy.

Last year the global automotive industry recorded a contraction of 16 per cent, yet three million new electric cars were registered worldwide, bringing the total to ten million. Consumers spent 120 billion dollars on this type of vehicle — a figure up 50 per cent — also because carmakers brought 370 models to market, a 40 per cent increase in a single year. All signs suggest that the race to win this market will accelerate considerably: 18 of the top 20 carmakers (representing 90 per cent of the global automotive industry) are preparing to increase the number of electrified models on offer.

The impact of electric vehicles on oil companies

The energy industry is closely following a trend that will inevitably have significant implications for oil companies. Based on global emissions reduction targets, electric vehicles could make more than 2 million barrels per day of diesel and petrol unnecessary by 2030, saving 120 million tonnes of carbon dioxide; a figure that, in the face of even more decisive political action, could rise to 3.5 million barrels. "Current sales trends are very encouraging," explained Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, "but our shared climate and energy goals require even faster market uptake."

According to the report, producing electric vehicles in sufficient numbers to put the world on the right track with respect to climate targets would be a "formidable challenge" that must be supported by "stronger ambition from all countries". The Agency expects that technological advances in battery technology and the mass production of electric cars will ultimately reduce costs and, with them, the need for government subsidies. But at the same time this decade will require policies that promote the introduction of medium and heavy low-carbon vehicles, as well as greater investment in the installation of rapid charging infrastructure.