A new report indicates that the collapse in solar and wind prices would drive fossil fuels out of the electricity market as early as 2030. A new report indicates that the collapse in solar and wind prices would drive fossil fuels out of the electricity market as early as 2030.
If we were to harness the potential of renewable sources such as solar and wind, we could cover 100 per cent of global energy demand. This is the claim of a new report produced by the think tank Carbon Tracker, which highlights how solar and wind at current growth rates will push fossil fuels out of the electricity sector by the mid-2030s, while by 2050 they could power the world, completely replacing fossil fuels and producing low-cost clean energy to support new technologies such as electric vehicles and green hydrogen.
That is how the report's authors describe it: a revolution comparable to the one humanity faced with the transition to agriculture and later with the first industrial revolution. Renewables are now said to be capable of propelling society towards a new transition.
To reach these conclusions, the group's researchers assessed global energy consumption and compared it with the potential output from solar and wind. Global energy consumption in 2019 was 65 petawatt-hours (1 PWh = 1,000 TWh). However, with current technology, the world has the potential to capture more than 5,800 PWh per year from photovoltaics alone — the equivalent of the energy that could be generated in a single year by burning all known fossil fuel reserves. In addition, onshore and offshore wind could capture nearly 900 PWh per year. That is 100 times more energy than current demand.
"We are entering a new era, comparable to the industrial revolution. The cost of energy will plummet and become available to many more millions of people, particularly in low-income countries," said Kingsmill Bond, energy expert at Carbon Tracker, in a statement. "Geopolitics will be transformed as nations are freed from costly imports of coal, oil and gas. Clean renewable energy will counter climate change and free the planet from pollution."
The estimates are certainly based on the potential of technologies such as solar and wind, but to keep things grounded, Carbon Tracker explains that "just 1 per cent [of total potential] is enough to replace all fossil fuel use," says Harry Benham, one of the report's authors and chair of Ember. "Every year we fuel the climate crisis by burning three million years of fossilised sunlight in coal, oil and gas, while we use only 0.01 per cent of daily sunlight."
According to the study, just 0.3 per cent of available photovoltaic surface area worldwide would be sufficient to meet global energy demand — less than the area occupied by fossil fuels. By way of comparison, the world's largest oil field, Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, covers 8,400 square kilometres and produces the equivalent of 0.9 PWh per year. Building solar panels over the same area would generate 1.2 PWh per year on average globally, and 1.6 PWh in Saudi Arabia, which is sunnier than average.
At first reading, Carbon Tracker's vision may seem somewhat naïve, failing to account for economic and above all political dynamics at the global level. And it is certainly not the first time that the total potential of renewables has been set against an altogether more complex reality. The fact remains that a review of the scientific literature currently available — comprising 56 peer-reviewed studies by 109 different authors — has already examined a range of different situations and geographical areas, including small island states, major powers and sub-Saharan African countries, finding that energy for electricity, transport, heating or cooling of buildings and industry can be reliably supplied with 100 per cent renewable energy, in various locations around the world.
That the trend is the one outlined by the study is also confirmed by the facts: according to a report published last year, wind, solar, hydropower and biomass met 38 per cent of European electricity demand in 2020, compared with 37 per cent from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, at the global level, again with regard to last year, 90 per cent of total newly installed capacity was accounted for by renewables, led by wind, hydropower and photovoltaics. In total, that amounts to a record level of 200 gigawatts. Further confirmation also comes from Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA): "By 2025, renewables will become the largest source of electricity generation worldwide."
