• The company Xdi has drawn up a ranking of the 2,600 regions most vulnerable to climate change.
• In first place is the province of Jiangsu, one of China's main industrial districts.
• As many as 16 of the top 20 positions are held by China.
• The first non-Chinese region is Florida, in tenth place.

The province of Jiangsu, on China's eastern coast, is one of the world's leading industrial hubs. In terms of GDP, with over 1,260 billion euros in 2019, it ranks second only to the province of Guangdong. The per capita GDP of its 80 million inhabitants, meanwhile, is the highest in all of China. Its capital, Nanjing, was the country's capital under the Ming dynasty and is today a megalopolis of 8 million inhabitants, as well as a renowned tourist destination. But the province of Jiangsu has another distinctive feature: it is the region on the planet that, more than any other, risks being thrown into turmoil by the climate crisis. What is more, of the twenty regions most vulnerable to climate change, as many as 16 are located in China.

The study on the regions most vulnerable to climate change

These data are provided by Xdi: the cross dependency initiative, a company that processes climate data and projections on behalf of banks, public administration bodies and businesses. Its analysts worked on the basis of a hypothetical scenario in which the global average temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. The limit to which the international community has committed is far lower, namely 1.5 degrees. To date, however, this target appears extremely difficult to reach. According to a recent study, we could exceed the 1.5-degree threshold as early as 2031.

A rise of 3 degrees would translate into a series of extreme phenomena, including wildfires, sea level rise, floods and more. Phenomena that, besides destroying buildings and infrastructure and causing immediate economic losses, would end up discouraging investment and lowering property values. Xdi's analysis therefore estimates these damages across around 2,600 areas of the world.

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China's Jiangsu, Shandong and Hebei provinces rank among the areas most vulnerable to rising water levels and extreme weather ⤵️ aje.io/pduhua

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China's industrial districts are at risk

Scrolling through the ranking of the regions most vulnerable to climate change, what immediately stands out is that the top positions are all occupied by China. In first place is the province of Jiangsu, followed by that of Shandong, just to the north, and that of Hebei, known for its flourishing steel industry. In fourth place is the province of Henan, where the extensive floods of 2021 caused damage estimated at at least 17.6 billion dollars.

It is no coincidence that China occupies the majority of places in the ranking (16 of the top 20, to be precise). "Infrastructure investments tend to concentrate in areas that have traditionally been high-risk: river deltas, coastal zones, relatively flat areas," explains Rohan Hamden, chief executive of Xdi.

Florida and New York also among the most exposed areas

One has to scroll down to tenth place in the ranking to encounter the first area outside China. It is Florida, already struck in 2022 by Hurricane Ian, which left two million people without power. In the southern part of the American state, sea levels have already risen by 20 centimetres compared to 1950 levels. According to some estimates, by 2050 real estate assets worth between 15 and 23 billion dollars could end up underwater. So much so that some insurers are beginning to refuse to cover homes: the risks are too great.

California (19th), Texas (20th) and New York (46th) also feature among the 50 regions most vulnerable to climate change. India also has a considerable presence, with nine territories, starting with Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, where the famous Taj Mahal monument is located.