• Global warming is accelerating.
• We have a one-in-two chance of reaching the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius of increase above pre-industrial levels within the next five years.
• This is explained by a study from the World Meteorological Organization.
• Just one year ago, the probability stood at 20 per cent.

We have a one-in-two chance of reaching the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius, in terms of an increase in average global temperature, within the next five years. This is explained by a report published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and compiled by the United Kingdom's Meteorological Service (Met Office), which underlines that this is a probability rising sharply compared to previous years, and one that will continue to grow over time.

In 2015, the chances of reaching 1.5 degrees were almost zero

The data provided by the United Nations agency are alarming: it is worth recalling that the 1.5-degree target is cited in the Paris Agreement of 2015 as a limit we should not exceed by the end of the century. Naturally, exceeding it in the coming years does not mean that drastic measures to reduce climate-altering emissions can no longer be adopted, allowing average temperatures to decline over the following decades. But the current trend, unfortunately, is not heading in that direction.

"The probability of a temporary overshoot of the 1.5-degree threshold – the report reads – has not stopped increasing since 2015, the year in which it was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, it stood at 10 per cent." Greenhouse gas emissions are indeed continuing to rise, and the ecological transition the planet needs has only been initiated to a small degree by governments. As a result, climate change, already under way, is becoming ever clearer in the eyes of science.

There is a 93% chance we will record the hottest year ever by 2026

The WMO has specified that there is a 93 per cent chance of experiencing the hottest year ever recorded in history between now and 2026. Equally, it is virtually certain that the average temperature of the next five-year period (2022–2026) will prove higher than that of the five years just passed.

Reuters ✓ @Reuters

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Global temperatures could temporarily rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization says reut.rs/3L291Df

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"This study – commented Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization – shows with great scientific reliability that we are drawing significantly closer to the moment when we will touch 1.5 degrees. And this is not an arbitrarily chosen value: it marks the point from which the effects of climate change will become devastating for populations, if not for the entire planet."

The overshoot could be temporary but not without consequences

"As long as – the official added – we continue to emit greenhouse gases, average temperatures will continue to rise. Our oceans will continue to warm and acidify. Glaciers will keep melting, sea levels will keep rising and extreme weather events will keep intensifying."

Prof Michael E. Mann ✓ @MichaelEMann

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"The World Meteorological Organization projects global temperatures will briefly break the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming mark soon, but that won’t mean it’s broken the Paris Agreement limit" by @BBerwyn for @InsideClimate News: insideclimatenews.org/news/10052022/…

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"Exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold – observed Leon Hermanson, a researcher at the Met Office – does not mean the more ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement has been missed. It is, however, a signal indicating that it is possible we may remain beyond that threshold for a prolonged period of time." Which would represent an epochal upheaval for the Earth.