A new Unep report explains that, under current government commitments, the global average temperature will rise by 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100.
The commitments made by governments around the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will send the planet towards a climate catastrophe. According to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep), the pledges submitted by states to the United Nations are not only insufficient to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, but will in fact lead to a rise in the global average temperature, by the end of the century, of 2.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The document highlights how the words about the importance of tackling climate change, the proclamations about cutting CO2 and the commitments to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 have not been followed by sufficient concrete action. On the contrary, the pledges according to Unep remain "vague, often incomplete and not aligned with most short-term programmes".
"Less than a week before the start of Cop 26 in Glasgow," commented UN Secretary-General António Guterres, "the world remains on course for catastrophe. As the title of this year's report indicates, 'the heat is on'. And as the contents of the document show, the leadership we need is instead absent."
Unep also highlights how, following an unprecedented fall in CO2 emissions caused by the pandemic during 2020 (-5.4 per cent), a new and marked increase is expected. Preliminary estimates for 2021 point to a rise of 4.8 per cent, bringing total levels to just below the all-time record reached in 2019. It comes as no surprise, in this context, that the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that the amount of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere has reached 413.2 parts per million (ppm): to find a value this high, one must go back 3–5 million years.
If the global average temperature were truly to rise by 2.7 degrees Celsius, disasters around the world would only multiply. In October 2018, another report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Ipcc) had explained what would change between the two targets set in Paris in 2015 on global warming — namely 1.5 and 2 degrees. Under the first scenario, sea level rise would be ten centimetres lower than under the 2-degree scenario by the end of the century.
Furthermore, the prospect of a summer with an ice-free Arctic Ocean is considered highly unlikely (once a century) at 1.5 degrees, but far more frequent (once a decade) at 2 degrees. Likewise, at 2 degrees, 99 per cent of the world's coral reefs could be lost, whereas that figure would fall to 70–90 per cent in the more favourable scenario. Given these figures, it is easy to imagine that a further rise of 0.7 degrees Celsius could bring about simply disastrous effects.
To reach the conclusions set out in the report, Unep examined the NDCs (Nationally determined contributions) submitted by 30 September by 191 parties: 190 nations plus the European Union. These are the reduction pledges put forward by each government. By that date, only 120 governments — whose CO2 emissions account for roughly half of the global total — had submitted new commitments in writing. This came after the first round of pledges — dating back to 2015 — had proved even less ambitious (at that point, projections were pointing to +3.2 degrees by the end of the century).
It was not possible, however, to take into account the new contribution submitted on 28 October, just hours before the start of Cop 26, by China. The Asian nation submitted its new NDC, which had been particularly awaited given Beijing's weight in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. The document does not, in reality, represent enormous steps forward: the two main objectives — reaching peak emissions "before 2030" and achieving carbon neutrality "before 2060" — were simply confirmed.
However, in its previous NDC China had used different wording regarding the peak, stating that it would be reached "around 2030". Beijing has also committed to increasing the share of non-fossil fuels to 25 per cent of its energy mix (up from 20 per cent previously). This is to be achieved in particular through the development of installed solar and wind capacity to 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030. Nevertheless, according to Li Shuo of Greenpeace China, the new pledges "cast a shadow over the global climate effort. Beijing appears to be hesitating over more ambitious short-term targets." The environmental organisation is calling for peak emissions to be brought forward to 2025.
At the same time, Australia, the world's leading coal exporter, has also submitted a new NDC, in which the target of carbon neutrality by 2050 appears for the first time. However, the document provides no detail on how the country intends to achieve this.
As explained by Anne Olhoff, one of the report's authors, "some progress" has therefore been made, but in a manner that is "still largely insufficient". On the basis of current NDCs, the reduction in emissions by 2030 will amount to just 7.5 per cent compared with previous commitments.
To meet the 2-degree Celsius target, that reduction would need to be quadrupled; if the aim is to limit the rise in global average temperature to 1.5 degrees, the effort will need to be seven times greater than what has been announced so far.
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