The coronavirus has caused global CO2 emissions to collapse
Environment — di Andrea Barolini
Lockdown has produced a sharp fall in global CO2 emissions. But the risk is that the economic recovery could bring them back to 2019 levels.
The coronavirus has caused global CO2 emissions to collapse
Lockdown has produced a sharp fall in global CO2 emissions. But the risk is that the economic recovery could bring them back to 2019 levels.
The coronavirus crisis and the consequent lockdown will bring about a drastic annual fall in global CO2 emissions. This is confirmed by a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, according to which the annual decline could be between 4 and 7 per cent compared to 2019.
Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement.
See a new @gcarbonproject analysis just published @NatureClimate
dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558…
See a new @gcarbonproject analysis just published @NatureClimate
dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558…
China is driving the fall in emissions
Specifically, between 1 January and 30 April, the pandemic caused a fall in CO2 emissions from fossil sources of 8.6 per cent. This means that the world released into the atmosphere at least one billion tonnes less than in the same period of the previous year. In particular, on 7 April, at the peak of the global lockdown, the fall was 17 per cent, taking into account seasonal adjustments.
In geographical terms, most of the decline was due to China. Emissions from the Asian nation fell by 242 million tonnes in the first four months of the year, equivalent to a fall of 7.8 per cent. In second place is the United States, with 207 million tonnes less than in 2019 (-12 per cent). The European Union and the United Kingdom saw emissions fall by 10 per cent, equivalent to 123 million tonnes. India, finally, recorded a decline of 98 million tonnes.
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At sector level, transport contributed the most to the fall in global emissions (39 per cent of the total). This comes as no surprise, given the halt to the vast majority of flights, shipping links and road traffic. In second place is industry, at 29 per cent, and in third energy production, at 17 per cent.
The need for a sustainable recovery
Good news? Yes, but only on condition that it does not entail a return to the so-called "business as usual". As highlighted by numerous observers — among them the international consortium of scientists Global Carbon Project, which oversaw the study — the contraction risks proving to be short-lived. Once economic systems are relaunched, there is a risk of a "recovery at all costs". In other words: that in order to restart the productive machine, it will be done by betting on fossil fuels and setting aside climate goals.
Now in NatureClimate - Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement by @clequere & @gcarbonproject colleagues go.nature.com/2XbNZeC
The risk, therefore, is that 2021 could see a surge in emissions capable of cancelling out this year's reduction. Unless the world decides to start again on new foundations, sustainable and climate-friendly. If so, what we are living through will have been the beginning of a new era.