A study has calculated that, at the current pace, the threshold of 1.5 degrees of increase in global average temperature will be reached in just 9 years.
In 2015, with the Paris Agreement, governments around the world agreed on the need to limit the rise in global average temperature to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, relative to pre-industrial levels. But while remaining "as close as possible to 1.5 degrees". As it stands, concrete action by states has been so inadequate that the second, more ambitious target will – almost certainly – be spectacularly missed.
A study published in the journal Nature, carried out by researchers from China, the United States and France, has precisely calculated the current trajectory of global warming. It concludes that, at the current pace, the 1.5-degree threshold will in all likelihood be reached as early as 2031: 69 years ahead of the end of the century.
The authors of the analysis calculated how long it will take for the world to exhaust the so-called carbon budget — that is, the quantity of greenhouse gases we can still afford to release into the atmosphere, given the targets that have been set. "After the decline recorded during the pandemic in 2020," the study reads, "the latest data indicate that CO2-equivalent emissions returned to strong growth last year, with an increase of 4.8 per cent. This brought the total to 34.9 billion tonnes".
In this way, the authors continue, "8.7 per cent of the carbon budget still available if anthropogenic global warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees has been consumed. Continuing at this rate, we have a 67 per cent chance of exhausting the total in 9 years and six months." That is, precisely, by 2031.
Conversely, to remain aligned with the more ambitious target of the Paris Agreement in terms of global average temperature rise, a drastic and immediate reduction in emissions would be required, of at least 8 per cent per year. By wasting time as we are currently doing, "more costly and more aggressive action will instead be needed if the trend is to be reversed," the study further notes.
The situation is, quite simply, dire. Another study, published on 22 March, explained that if the 1.5-degree target is to be met, the major oil and gas producers (the United States, the United Kingdom, Norway, Canada, Australia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates) will not only need to begin cutting production immediately, but cease it entirely by 2034.