• The war in Ukraine has caused a surge in commodity prices (particularly food) and energy.
• The United Nations Development Programme (Undp) estimates that, as a consequence, 71 million people in developing countries have slipped below the extreme poverty line.

Just three months were enough. Russia invaded Ukraine; the war triggered a global shortage of certain commodities and severely disrupted the supply of oil and gas; prices skyrocketed, contributing to rising inflation rates. As a consequence, 71 million people in developing countries have slipped below the extreme poverty line, conventionally set at an income of less than $1.90 a day. All of this in just three months. The figures come from a report by the United Nations Development Programme (Undp).

United Nations ✓ @UN

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71 million people in the developing world fell into poverty in just 3 months as a consequence of global food & energy price surges, catalyzed by the war in Ukraine.

More from @UNDP: bit.ly/3uqL572 #HLPF

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The goal of ending extreme poverty is becoming ever more distant

Studies have for some time been highlighting how the war has had particularly damaging effects on the most vulnerable segments of the population. A report by Oxfam, published at the end of March, argues that during 2022 a further 198 million people were at risk of poverty due to the pandemic and rising inequality, and a further 65 million due to the war and rising prices. Counting those who were already in this situation beforehand, the total reaches 860 million, that is 11 per cent of humanity. And yet just eight years remain until 2030, the year by which the international community has committed to delivering the United Nations 2030 Agenda. The first of the Sustainable Development Goals is – or, more precisely, was meant to be – ending poverty.

The regions of the world at risk of extreme poverty

The Undp has sought to reconstruct the impact of rising food prices. A rise that now appears out of control: the Fao index stood at 154.2 points in June 2022, almost thirty more than a year earlier. The research confirms Oxfam's figures, estimating that 71 million people, across 159 developing countries, have fallen back into extreme poverty in just three months. Sub-Saharan Africa remains the most critical area, but Armenia, Uzbekistan, Haiti, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are also cause for concern. If instead one counts the number of people at risk of living on less than $5.50 a day (another poverty threshold identified by the World Bank), critical areas emerge even in the immediate vicinity of the conflict — such as Albania, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro and Georgia. And Ukraine itself.

Developing countries cannot manage on their own

Nor can recovery be said to be on the horizon — on the contrary: to keep inflation in check, central banks have been forced to raise interest rates, which further undermines economic growth. Developing countries, already grappling with high levels of external debt and meagre fiscal reserves, cannot hope to recover on their own: the Undp makes clear that "urgent attention from the international community" is needed.

Human Rights Watch ✓ @hrw

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From food to fuel, price hikes are increasing costs-of-living globally.

Governments should expand social protection and enact policies that will allow everyone to enjoy their human rights.

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"We are witnessing a growing and alarming divergence in the global economy, as entire developing countries face the threat of being left behind as they struggle to cope with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, crushing levels of debt and, now, an accelerating food and energy crisis," says Undp administrator Achim Steiner. "Yet new international efforts can break this vicious cycle, saving lives and livelihoods. This includes taking decisive steps to ease debt; keeping international supply chains open; and coordinated action to ensure that some of the world's most marginalised communities can access food and energy at affordable prices."