• In recent weeks Russian military operations have concentrated between the Donbas and the Black Sea, with the capture of Mariupol.
• More than 4,000 civilians have been killed in Ukraine so far, while the number of soldiers fallen in battle could run to tens of thousands.
• The international community is navigating between sending arms to Ukraine and imposing new sanctions on Russia, while NATO could be set to expand.

It has already been 100 days since 24 February, when we woke up to news of the first Russian strikes on Ukraine. 100 days that have confirmed the view that the war would last far longer than anyone might have imagined — 100 days during which Russia has had to contend with fierce Ukrainian resistance and revise its plans, concentrating the offensive on the eastern part of the country, in contrast to the wide-ranging attacks of the conflict's early stages.

The toll of these first 100 days of war is devastating, with cities razed to the ground, a diaspora of millions of people, and massacres such as that of Bucha. The international landscape has changed too, both economically and strategically, with sanctions that have had repercussions on Russia itself but also on those who imposed them, and new countries such as Sweden and Finland expressing their wish to join NATO.

100 days of fighting

At dawn on 24 February 2022 Russia struck Ukraine's main cities with numerous raids, also launching the ground operation aimed at "denazifying the country" and breaking Western influence, as announced by President Vladimir Putin. The attack had been in the air for some time, given that for months Moscow had amassed nearly 200,000 soldiers on the country's border and Putin's pre-war denials had convinced no one.

The intensity of the initial strikes, their territorial spread and the swift conquests — such as the strategically important city of Kherson or the nuclear power plants at Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia — suggested that Russia's aim of a lightning war might be achievable, if not within a matter of hours, then at least within weeks. Yet it was precisely as the weeks passed that the situation grew more complicated. The Russian advance on Kyiv was halted by Ukrainian resistance, which — through removed road signs, demolished bridges, ambushes and the effective action of an anti-aircraft defence bolstered by international military supplies — made entry into the capital impossible. So much so that one month into the war, Moscow's troops, in part also demoralised, decided to abandon Kyiv as well as some areas already captured, including Bucha and Chernobyl (where Moscow's soldiers suffered ailments linked to radiation released during the fighting), in order to redeploy towards other objectives, Mariupol above all. Meanwhile, in the background, Putin appointed Aleksandr Dvornikov as the new commander of operations in the country.

The battle for Mariupol, the southern Ukrainian city on the Sea of Azov situated between the Russian border and Crimea, has been the symbolic battle of the first 100 days of war. This is because on the one hand it demonstrated the strength of Ukrainian resistance, with Kyiv's troops led by the Azov battalion (known for its neo-Nazi positions) refusing to surrender until the very end, while on the other the Russian aggressor forces carried out the worst atrocities imaginable, encountering at the same time the same difficulties in breaking through enemy lines as they had encountered elsewhere in the country. Through the bombardment of theatres, paediatric hospitals and residential buildings, and the cutting of electricity, drinking water and food and medical supply lines, Russia mounted a siege that razed entire city districts to the ground. And yet it took three months to effectively capture Mariupol, with the last Ukrainian stronghold at the Azovstal steelworks effectively surrendering at the end of May, even as local commanders continue to say that soldiers are still engaged in resistance.

For the rest, the Russian offensive in recent weeks has focused on the Donbas, apart from some moments when bombardments of Kyiv resumed, such as when UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was visiting the city at the end of April, and on other cities elsewhere in the country, such as Lviv, in response to the symbolic Ukrainian success of the sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva in the Black Sea in early April. In recent days the siege has focused on the city of Sievierodonetsk, which could become a new Mariupol, but in general Russia, which was thought to have a clear path given the shorter supply lines that were meant to circumvent the logistical problems encountered elsewhere and whose objective is the creation of a corridor extending as far as the Moldovan separatist region of Transnistria, finds itself in a state of substantial stalemate, and the territories under its control at 100 days from the start of the conflict are broadly those seized in the early stages of the same. Indeed, Ukraine is mounting a counteroffensive near Kherson and Mykolaiv, in the south, and Kharkiv, in the east, which is allowing it to regain control of certain areas.

100 days of humanitarian tragedy

According to an investigation by Associated Press, the Russian bombing of the Mariupol theatre on 16 March alone killed at least 600 people. A figure explained by the fact that the building was being used as a shelter by civilians, and one that gives some sense of how dramatic the toll of 100 days of conflict could be. At the end of May, also in Mariupol, 200 bodies were found in the basement of a building. In Bucha, which became notorious for images of mass graves and bodies lying in the streets, the death toll may have been at least 500.

These individual episodes give a clear sense of the tragedy unfolding in Ukraine. According to the latest figures from the UNHCR, since the start of the conflict at least 4,031 civilians have been killed, while at least 4,062 have been injured. Children killed number at least 229, with 424 injured. Russian attacks have damaged more than 1,700 schools, and 161 have been completely destroyed. The latest figures from early May indicate that at least 400 healthcare facilities have been damaged, while the infrastructure network of roads, airports and railways has also been partially put out of action. Ukraine is, in short, on its knees, and the World Bank has highlighted that the country's poverty rate in 2022 could reach 70 per cent (compared with 17 per cent last year). This means that 70 per cent of the Ukrainian population risks finding itself living on less than 2 dollars a day between now and the end of the year. Faced with a situation of this kind — though already from the moment of the first bombardments at the end of February — millions of people have left their homes. According to the United Nations, there are today approximately 14 million refugees, of whom eight million are internally displaced and six million have migrated to other countries. Among the destination countries is Italy, which to date has officially taken in 116,000 people.

But when discussing the numbers associated with the first 100 days of war in Ukraine, one cannot ignore that of soldiers killed in battle. On this point uncertainty reigns, since neither side publishes significant updates on its own casualties, while attention is focused more on enemy losses — a classic pattern in wartime. On 20 May, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced 28,700 deaths among Moscow's forces in the first three months and ten days of fighting, while 1,250 tanks and 3,000 Russian military vehicles were said to have been destroyed. The last Russian bulletin on its own troops was issued at the end of March — a detail that speaks to the difficulties on the ground — and reported 1,351 deaths. On the Ukrainian side, President Volodymyr Zelensky in April put the death toll in his country's army at 2,500–3,000, while Moscow puts the estimate at tens of thousands. And on the subject of soldiers, on 23 May came the first conviction of a Russian soldier for war crimes since the start of the conflict. The Kyiv court sentenced 21-year-old Vadim Shishimarin to life imprisonment.

100 days of negotiations

While fighting continues on the ground, diplomacy has never stopped during these 100 days. Rounds of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine began in early February, first in person in Belarus and then by video conference. But while Ukraine sent its most senior ministers — those for Foreign Affairs and Defence — as its delegates, Russia's choice to be represented by politically minor figures was a clear signal from the outset of the limited substance of the negotiations.

The most that was achieved was the establishment of humanitarian corridors in Mariupol and in the cities where the fighting was at its most intense — corridors systematically violated, as was also the case during the evacuation in recent weeks of the Azovstal steelworks. Beyond that, numerous phone calls were held between Western leaders and Vladimir Putin, led above all by French President Emmanuel Macron, who initially maintained a stance of dialogue before acknowledging that Russia had no intention of reaching a peace agreement. On the Ukrainian side, following President Zelensky's many video addresses to parliaments around the world, direct visits by international delegations to Kyiv began once the situation in the capital had grown calmer.

As the world, 100 days into the war, is still trying to understand exactly what Putin wants (to take all of Ukraine? To control the eastern regions?), several analysts