What was supposed to be a lightning war in Ukraine has already reached its first month. And Russia's objectives are far from being achieved. What was supposed to be a lightning war in Ukraine has already reached its first month. And Russia's objectives are far from being achieved.
It has been one month since the start of the war in Ukraine. Someone on Twitter wrote that thirty days ago a war began that was supposed to last 72 hours, referring to the never-realised plans of Russian president Vladimir Putin to wage a lightning war. The Ukrainian operation is in fact proving far more difficult than expected; local resistance is fierce despite the military resources available being decidedly inferior to those of Moscow. Day after day, Russia has had to contend with enormous losses of men, an ever-lower morale that is complicating operations, and an economy on its knees as a result of international sanctions.
Against this backdrop, this first month of war has claimed thousands of civilian lives, produced millions of refugees and reduced to rubble not only military but also civilian targets. So much so that from the very beginning Russia has been accused of committing war crimes.
In the preceding months, Moscow had sent the bulk of its troops to the border with Ukraine, mobilising something in the region of 190,000 soldiers. And on 21 February it became clear that the invasion of the country was imminent, as Putin publicly recognised the independence of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, in the Donbas region, and declared that "Ukraine as a country does not exist."
The attack began on 24 February 2022, at dawn. Within a few hours, the vast majority of the country's airports had been struck by bombardments and air links with Ukraine were suspended, forcing those fleeing to make long journeys by land. The places most heavily hit by the first raids were the capital Kyiv and the northern, eastern and southern cities of Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Mariupol and Kherson. The latter was seized by the Russians within a matter of days — the first major Ukrainian city to fall into the hands of the aggressors — and it was thought this could be the beginning of a domino effect. In reality, one month into the conflict, Kherson remains the only major centre in which Moscow's offensive has emerged victorious, and elsewhere Russia has captured only smaller cities such as Melitopol and Berdyansk. The most critical situation today is in Mariupol, large swathes of which have been turned into a ghost city of rubble, with hundreds of thousands of people trapped without food or electricity. But despite the violent Russian offensive — which has also involved the bombing of children's hospitals, as reported — the resistance of Ukrainian forces continues to hold the upper hand.
Russian forces have nonetheless secured a number of sites that are symbolically or strategically significant. This is the case with the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and that of Zaporizhzhia, where fires caused by raids and fighting raised fears of radiation leaks, which subsequently proved unfounded. In recent days Moscow has also carried out its first bombardments in the western part of the country, including in the suburbs of Lviv, while its offensive is intensifying against the southern cities of Mykolaiv and Odessa and continuing against the eastern cities, with accusations of also using white phosphorus bombs, banned under international law (as are cluster munitions, which have been used frequently during this first month of war).
In general, the territories north of Crimea, those on the eastern border (beyond Donetsk) and northern border (beyond Chernihiv), and limited stretches of land near Kyiv are in the hands of Russian troops, but these still represent minority areas of the country, and are mostly countryside. Apart from a handful of villages, the major cities remain under Ukrainian control.
Since the war in Ukraine began, more than 3.5 million people have already fled the country, in what has been described as the fastest exodus in post-war Europe. Total displaced persons, including those who have moved internally within the country, number 6.5 million. Those who managed to cross the border have headed mainly to Poland, where around 2 million refugees are currently located. Many others have arrived in Romania and Moldova and from there have continued their journey to more distant destinations, such as Italy. As of 24 March, more than 63,000 have arrived here.
There is far greater uncertainty, however, surrounding the figures for the war in relation to civilian and military casualties. Russia's difficulties on the ground are translating into heavy losses, both in logistical and human terms. The military assets lost in one month reportedly number at least 1,700, including dozens of helicopters and other aircraft shot down by Ukrainian air defences. Many videos circulating online have shown endless columns of Russian tanks and other military vehicles abandoned or destroyed along the roads. As for the human toll, NATO stated in recent hours that the number of Russian soldiers killed in battle would be between 7,000 and 15,000, while the figures provided by Moscow remain the 498 released at the beginning of March. If the wounded and military personnel captured by the Ukrainian army are also taken into account, Russia may have lost up to 40,000 men — 20 per cent of the total troops deployed in Ukraine.
