Governments still don't want to save Earth's climate
Environment — di Andrea Barolini
The new government pledges to cut CO2 are still far short of what science calls for to save the climate.
Governments still don't want to save Earth's climate
The new government pledges to cut CO2 are still far short of what science calls for to save the climate.
Government commitments to save the climate are weak, partial, modest. In a word: insufficient. A new report by the Unfccc, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, has assessed the impact on global warming of the pledges made by countries around the world to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Its conclusion is that, even if everything proposed were met 100 per cent, the average global temperature will rise by 2.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial levels. That would mean moving from a situation of crisis to one of climate catastrophe.
Current national climate commitments are falling pitifully short in an attempt to limit global temperature rise.
Leaders must listen to their people’s calls for change and lift their #ClimateAction ambition.
Leaders must listen to their people’s calls for change and lift their #ClimateAction ambition.
Identical conclusions were also reached by Unep, the United Nations Environment Programme, which stressed in its "Emission Gap" report published on 27 October that the range to which government pledges will take us lies between 2.4 and 2.6 degrees (depending on the different scenarios). Furthermore, the document adds that, if the current trajectory were instead maintained, the figure would reach 2.8 degrees.
Government climate pledges still falling short, from 2015 to today
Pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions were made for the first time in 2015, as the world was approaching the twenty-first Conference of the Parties on climate, Cop 21 in Paris, which led to the adoption of the Agreement bearing the name of the French capital. Technically, this took place through documents submitted to the Unfccc, known as NDCs (Nationally determined contributions).
The first assessment of those commitments was damning: they would have led to an increase in average global temperature of as much as 3.2 degrees Celsius compared to before humans began burning coal, oil and gas. For this reason, in the years that followed, governments were asked to submit new NDCs. These too, however, proved insufficient, albeit improving: the trajectory would have led to +2.7 degrees, according to an analysis by Unep (the United Nations Environment Programme) published in October 2021.
The trajectory towards the 1.5-degree target remains far out of reach
One year on, the new pledges have therefore improved only marginally. A mere 0.2 degrees. And it is worth recalling, once again, that the projection assumes they are kept in full — something that is by no means guaranteed, given that governments and parliamentary majorities change over time. And economic, geopolitical and energy crises can intervene, prompting countries to take different paths.
🆕 UN Climate Change report 🆕
A new report summarizing countries' national climate plans (#NDCs) shows that current commitments remain insufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
#COP27 | #ClimateCrisis
A new report summarizing countries' national climate plans (#NDCs) shows that current commitments remain insufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
#COP27 | #ClimateCrisis
What is certain, on the other hand, is what science tells us. Namely, that in order to keep the impacts of climate change within acceptable limits, the world should have one single guiding star: the 1.5-degree threshold. Because even reaching 2 degrees, as explained in detail in a report by the Ipcc, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, published in October 2018, would change the history of life on Earth.
Emissions will continue to rise — by 10.6 per cent — by 2030
The new Unfccc report explains that, by 2030, rather than falling, greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise. By 10.6 per cent, to be precise, compared to 2010 levels. This figure, too, represents only a slight improvement on last year's, when a rise of +13.7 per cent was indicated. After that, at least, projections point to a stabilisation of emissions — which, however, the UN notes "do not show the steep declining trend that science deems necessary".
According to the Ipcc, the trajectory that would keep warming to 1.5 degrees would require a 45 per cent drop in global emissions by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. "We have made some progress this year," commented Unfccc Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, "but the science is clear, just as the Paris Agreement makes plain. We are still far from where we need to be. National governments must strengthen their climate action plans immediately."
📣 BREAKING: New @UNFCCC report shows that governments' climate plans are still not strong enough to limit warming to 1.5°C.
They're on track to warm our planet by 2.5°C, which would be catastrophic for people and nature. 🚨
#COP27 #ClimateCrisis #NDCs
They're on track to warm our planet by 2.5°C, which would be catastrophic for people and nature. 🚨
#COP27 #ClimateCrisis #NDCs
Just days before the start of the twenty-seventh Conference of the Parties on climate — Cop 27, to be held in Egypt — the Unfccc report represents a fresh warning to governments around the world. The Earth is in their hands. The future of our children is in their hands.