Cop 25 opens today in Madrid, the twenty-fifth United Nations world climate conference. The Spanish capital is hosting the event in place of Santiago de Chile, following the withdrawal of the South American government, which has nonetheless retained the presidency. Around 25,000 scientists, technicians, government delegates and NGO representatives will need to attempt, between now and 13 December, to lay solid foundations for 2020 to mark the turning point in the fight against climate change.

António Guterres ✓ @antonioguterres

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To address the climate emergency, we need a rapid & deep change in how we do business, how we generate power, how we build cities, how we move and how we feed the world.

If we don’t urgently change our way of life, we jeopardize life itself. #COP25

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The climate negotiations will not be straightforward: it will be necessary to overcome the limited — if not entirely absent — political will of certain nations. To resolve a series of points on which, from the Paris Agreement of 2015 to the present day, no global consensus has yet been reached. And, above all, Cop 25 will need to conclude with a road map in hand for revising each government's pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Because the pledges made so far will not be sufficient to avert climate catastrophe. Not even if they were kept in full. Here, then, is what must be expected from the Madrid conference for it to be judged a success.

1 Emissions reduction pledges must be raised

The Paris Agreement states clearly that, to avoid the worst, the increase in average global temperature must not exceed 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial levels. Remaining as close as possible to 1.5 degrees.

Even this value causes major disruption, as confirmed by the Special Report 1.5 of the Ipcc, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. To raise individual states' pledges, it will be necessary to revise the documents known in technical jargon as NDCs, Nationally Determined Contributions.

These are the CO2 emissions reduction pledges that were submitted to the Unfccc, the framework convention, in 2015, ahead of Cop 21 in Paris. The United Nations itself has explained that, even if these pledges were honoured, they will lead to an increase of 3.2 degrees by 2100. More must therefore be done. Much more.

In its latest report entitled Emission Gap, published just days before the start of Cop 25, Unep explained that to reverse course and hit the 1.5-degree target, emissions must be reduced by 7.6 per cent per year between now and 2030. This is work envisaged by the Paris Agreement, which had indicated the need to revise NDCs every five years.

UN Environment Programme ✓ @UNEP

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The #EmissionsGap interactive shares the 4️⃣ numbers that hold the fate of so many in balance.

What are they and how are we doing? Find out here: bit.ly/34rTpog

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2 The need to exert pressure on the major powers

The first deadline is therefore in 2020. So far, however, only one country in the world has submitted its revised document to the Unfccc: the Marshall Islands. A further 68 states have committed to doing so next year. The problem is that they represent only 7 per cent of global CO2 emissions. The major economic powers are, in fact, conspicuously absent. The United States in particular, whose climate-sceptic president Donald Trump has even initiated the procedure for withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, judging it "damaging" to American interests. But Beijing's position also weighs heavily: China is a world leader in renewable energy development and has no intention of leaving the Agreement. Yet it continues undeterred to build new coal-fired power stations, entirely incompatible with the global fight against climate change.

Sergio Costa @SergioCosta_Gen

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L'#Italia in prima fila alla #Cop25 di #Madrid. Tutto il mondo insieme per affrontare i #CambiamentiClimatici.

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Brazil under the ultra-conservative Jair Bolsonaro is also going through a dramatic period, with a massive programme of deforestation in the Amazon. This is depriving the planet of elements essential for the absorption of the CO2 that human activities release into the atmosphere. "And, worse still, some nations have even stated that they do not wish to revise their NDCs. Japan is one such example," warns Lucile Dufour of the Climate Action Network, a network of environmental organisations that will be present at Cop 25 in Madrid. Pressure must therefore be exerted by every means possible. From above and from below. Isolating the detractors of the fight against climate change and pushing for nations governed responsibly to have the courage to openly denounce those who are not working to guarantee a future for coming generations.

3 The CO2 emissions trading mechanism

One system identified in Paris in 2015 for meeting global climate targets is that of "emissions trading" (ETS, Emissions Trading System). Technically, it consists of quantifying a maximum level of emissions worldwide. This is then converted into "rights to pollute" distributed among states and companies. Those who emit less can thus sell their rights to the less virtuous. And the latter should find themselves incentivised to do better in order to avoid such costs.

Simon Evans @DrSimEvans

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Next week, 10s of 1,000s of negotiators will descend on Madrid for the annual UN climate summit #COP25

They hope to agree rules for "Article 6", the technical & obscure text that could "make or break" the Paris Agreement.

What's it all about?

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carbonbrief.org/in-depth-q-and…

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First problem: the system has also been adopted in Europe. And it has been extremely criticised because the value of these rights, left free to fluctuate in the name of free market principles, long remained at very low levels — incapable of acting as a deterrent for the heaviest polluters. Second problem: the system was cited in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Since then, at Cop 22 in Marrakech, Cop 23 in Bonn and Cop 24 in Katowice, discussion of its concrete implementation has continued. Without reaching any agreement.

4 Funds to support the transition in poorer countries

Cop 25 is also expected to provide fresh impetus from a financial standpoint. The world's poorest nations are, in fact, those that suffer and will continue to suffer most from the effects of climate change. And yet they are the ones that have contributed least to causing it. It is for this reason that, as far back as Cop 15 in Copenhagen in 2009, it was decided that the wealthier governments would allocate funds to assist developing countries.

The figure of 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 was indicated at the time. This was also confirmed at Cop 21 in Paris. However, it has never been allocated in full. Last October, the donor countries of the Green Climate Fund, created in 2014 specifically to support the transition, pledged to contribute 9.8 billion dollars over the next four years. An encouraging sign, but still far from sufficient.

5 The success of Cop 25 depends on us too

But waiting for the actions of governments and multinationals is not enough. Saving the Earth's climate will also require the behaviour of each and every one of us. Modes of transport, diet, energy saving, sustainable use of the internet: the ways to do our part are countless. And if anyone were to think that "it's the United States and China who are most to blame," there is a line of reasoning that is raised far too rarely and is well worth considering.

UN Climate Change @UNFCCC

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Follow live from #Madrid: Opening Ceremony UN Climate Change Conference #COP25 x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

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It is in China, in fact, that Western countries have offshored their most pollutin