• Cop28 in Dubai, the United Nations climate conference, takes place from 30 November to 12 December.
• The Cop will be chaired by Sultan al-Jaber, whose appointment has been strongly criticised around the world.
• Mitigation, loss and damage, peak emissions: what is expected of the international community in the days ahead.
• Meanwhile, an independent investigation reveals that the United Arab Emirates would like to use Cop28 to seal new fossil fuel deals.

Eight years have passed since the twenty-first United Nations climate conference. It was 2015, in fact, when the Paris Agreement was adopted in the French capital, at the close of Cop21.

Eight years. An infinitesimal period of time when viewed from a climate perspective. Yet one that becomes enormous in light of the extremely serious delay that governments around the world have accumulated in responding to the emergency posed by global warming. It is no coincidence that the scientific community, in an almost unanimous voice, non-governmental organisations, and the United Nations itself — from 2016 and Cop22 held in Marrakech, Morocco, onwards — have consistently called for that agreement to be given concrete implementation. Substantial progress, however, has been far too limited. And it is for this reason that Cop28, scheduled to take place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from 30 November to 12 December, represents yet another crucial juncture. Yet another last resort. Yet another final call for planet Earth.

The thorny issue of the Cop28 presidency

Unfortunately, however, the world summit does not begin under the best of auspices. First and foremost because of who is hosting it. As is well known, the Cop will be chaired by Ahmed al-Jaber, chief executive of the United Arab Emirates' oil giant, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc). An embarrassing choice that has not failed to provoke strong protests from civil society. The risk — obvious and plain to see — is of a conflict of interest between what serves the Emirati fossil fuel giant and what is instead necessary for the climate.

Beyond the bombastic proclamations from those who continue to exploit coal, oil and gas, the fact remains that today, in order to meet the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement — namely limiting the rise in average global temperature to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century relative to pre-industrial levels — we have only one path available: abandoning fossil fuels as quickly as possible and decisively pursuing the development of clean ones. Talking about carbon capture technologies (CCS) is like talking about nuclear fusion: these are systems that, as of today, are in the first case immature, in the second futuristic, and in both cases extremely costly.

Towards a phase-out, a farewell to coal?

Yet, paradoxically, al-Jaber's very presidency could allow for progress to be made on the most harmful of fossil fuels: coal. At Cop26 in Glasgow in 2021, a glimmer of hope had emerged in this regard. For several days, the draft concluding declaration (the so-called cover decision) indicated a willingness to abandon the fuel. The word phase-out (exit, in effect) featured prominently in the documents. This came as a surprise to many insiders, as such a clear and unambiguous step forward had not been anticipated. In the end, however, the final declaration settled on a far weaker formula: merely a phase-down (reduction).

The hypothesis is that at Cop28 al-Jaber will attempt what, depending on one's perspective, could be seen either as a dramatic twist or as an enormous exercise in greenwashing. The Sultan could indeed seek to prevent the conference from failing, also in order to enhance the UAE's diplomatic standing. How? Precisely by trying to secure the agreement on coal that eluded Glasgow. Adnoc, after all, operates in the oil sector: in this light, a farewell to a competing fossil fuel might not be unwelcome.

Some would like to do fossil fuel business at the climate negotiations

This, of course, runs up against the fact that at the Cops, the rule of consensus applies: for a final declaration to be adopted, the approval of all parties is required. That is, all nearly 200 governments present. The risk, in short, is that other nations for which coal remains extremely important could stand in the way. Moreover, the prospect of good intentions on the part of the presidency already appears to be colliding with reality: an investigation published by the BBC reveals the contents of documents obtained by independent journalists from the Center for Climate Reporting, according to which the UAE is planning to exploit its role as host nation to close deals on oil and gas. To this end, discussions are said to have already been initiated with around fifteen states, including Mozambique, Canada and Australia. The Cop28 presidency has responded by stating that the elements of the investigation are "inaccurate".

BBC News (World) ✓ @BBCWorld

𝕏

UAE planned to use its role as host of UN climate talks to strike oil and gas deals with other nations, leaked documents show bbc.in/3GlnGtn

♥ 293💬 141 27 nov 2023 · Apri su X →

This is, however, precisely the conflict of interest risk that has been highlighted from multiple quarters. As for the nations that might form a "wall" against any attempt to press ahead on coal, we are not talking solely about India, China or Australia. Many countries in Eastern Europe are still heavily dependent on that fuel, and it is probably also for this reason that, on 16 October, the countries of the European Union settled for maintaining their existing greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (-55 per cent by 2030), even though an increase in ambition would have been more than welcome.

Possible progress on the implementation of the loss and damage fund

An acceleration at Cop28 on mitigation is, by contrast, more necessary than ever. At Cop27, held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, the issue was not taken up. By the express wishes of the presidency, the topic of mitigation was set aside (even as the timeframes were closing in dramatically) in order to reach an agreement on the question of so-called loss and damage. That is, the need to compensate the losses and damages suffered by the most vulnerable nations (and often the least responsible) in the face of climate change. The establishment of a dedicated fund aims to facilitate financial compensation, for example in the event of flooding resulting from rising sea levels, themselves caused by the melting of polar ice. This instrument, however, must be built from scratch: decisions will need to be made on how much funding it will have, who will provide it, and what the mechanisms for accessing it will be.

At Sharm el-Sheikh it was merely indicated that the fund would be destined for countries "particularly vulnerable". This opens up wide room for interpretation. It is assumed that at least all small island nations, as well as the so-called "least developed countries", will be able to count on the funding. This is a group of states established by the United Nations on the basis of gross domestic product or the Human Development Index (an alternative indicator of human development to GDP). Among its members are, for example, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Haiti and Madagascar. But Pakistan is not among them, even though its territory was literally devastated by floods in 2022, and as a result it faces immense reconstruction costs, estimated at over 30 billion dollars.

Global stocktake: Cop28 must approve the first assessment of climate action

To this is added the chapter on adaptation funds. That is, for all the infrastructural adjustments that vulnerable nations will need to make in order to limit the impacts of climate change. In this case, therefore, it is not a matter of repairing damage already suffered but of attempting to limit it in the future, through prevention. Here too, the contributions from wealthy nations — which bear the greatest responsibility for global warming — in favour of poorer ones are infinitely lower than what is needed.

Finally, at Cop28 there will be a first attempt to negotiate, draft and adopt an initial global stocktake — that is, the first global assessment of climate action. In other words, a document capable of showing which trajectory we are on in terms of mitigating global warming and adapting to its effects. It is easy to predict that in this respect too the positions expressed by individual governments will be extremely divergent. The hope is that science may prevail. Although the 1.5-degree threshold is drawing ever closer, we still have a chance of making it. And even if it were to be exceeded, every tenth of a degree will count. Every tenth of a degree will mean guaranteeing less damage, fewer economic impacts and saving hundreds of thousands of lives.

Making the 2025 emissions peak official, just over a year away

Regardless of how much is done in terms of reduction pledges, mitigation and the like, the guidelines defined by the global stocktake must be adopted and used as a compass. The document released by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Unfccc) — which Cop28 must discuss and adopt — refers to the need to reach the emissions peak in 2025 in order to try to remain within the 2-degree increase in average global temperature. And to do so, as we have by now learned, it is necessary to triple the annual rate at which we install new renewable capacity and double energy efficiency. This is a crucial point, one on which the United States and China have also agreed.