• Shortly before the start of Cop28 in Dubai, the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) published its report taking stock of financing for climate change adaptation.
• The flow of public capital reaching developing countries fell by 15 per cent, not exceeding $21 billion in 2021. This means a deficit of between $194 and $366 billion a year.

Adapting to the impacts of climate change is underfunded. And as a result, the world is unprepared to face the consequences of rising global average temperatures. Above all, this is true of the most vulnerable nations, such as some Pacific island states, which risk disappearing from the map due to rising sea levels caused by the melting of polar ice. The same countries that are — paradoxically — the least responsible for the greenhouse gas emissions driving these climate upheavals.

"Rich countries don't seem to understand the gravity of the climate crisis"

A few weeks before the start of Cop28, the twenty-eighth United Nations world climate conference, to be held in Dubai between November and December, the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) published the 2023 edition of the "Adaptation gap" report, which sets out the distance between what would be needed to adapt to climate change and what we are actually doing. And the conclusions are simply bleak.

The Unep report states, without mincing words, that the governments of the world's wealthiest countries appear to be pretending not to grasp either the gravity or the urgency of the problem. "In some respects," the document reads, "rather than accelerating, progress on adaptation to climate change has stalled. And the shortfalls range from financing to planning, through to concrete action, with serious implications in terms of losses and damages, particularly for the most vulnerable."

Adaptation allocations for poor countries down 15 per cent

"The report shows that there is a growing gap between needs and responses when it comes to protecting populations from the extreme consequences of climate change. It is more urgent than ever to take measures to protect human beings and nature," United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres commented in this regard. It is worth considering that the costs of adaptation in developing countries have been estimated, depending on different scenarios, at between $215 and $387 billion a year during the current decade. And these are figures that will increase further between now and the middle of the century.

Yet, even in the face of such clear figures, the world's response cannot fail to leave one dumbfounded. Despite the pledge made at Cop26 in Glasgow to double financial support for adaptation, to reach $40 billion a year by 2025, the flow of public capital reaching developing countries fell by 15 per cent, not exceeding $21 billion in 2021. This means a deficit of between $194 and $366 billion a year.

Losses and damages for the 55 most vulnerable nations already at $500 billion

The commitment made at the Scottish Cop also represented an attempt to "catch up" on what had been agreed at a Conference of the Parties many years earlier: Cop15 in Copenhagen in 2009. At that time, the world's wealthy nations accepted the principle of transferring $100 billion a year to poorer ones, specifically to enable them to adapt to climate change. And yet that sum was never fully allocated in the fourteen years that followed.

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An attitude not without consequences. The Unep report itself cites recent assessments according to which just the 55 most vulnerable economies in the face of climate change have already suffered losses and damages of more than $500 billion over the past two decades. Also because what is lacking is not only action on adaptation but also on mitigation: the latest greenhouse gas emissions reduction pledges by governments around the world will lead to an increase in global average temperature of between 2.5 and 2.9 degrees Celsius. Well beyond the more ambitious target of the Paris Agreement, which envisages not exceeding 2 degrees, while staying as close as possible to 1.5 degrees.

António Guterres: "The fossil fuel barons must do their part"

Faced with such a complex situation, the new Loss and Damage Fund will represent an important instrument for mobilising essential resources. But according to the United Nations, some problems will persist in this regard too, "as more innovative financing mechanisms will be needed to reach the necessary investments." And those who are today pushing the planet towards the climate crisis must also pay: "The fossil fuel barons and those who support them have contributed to creating this sorry situation and must now support those who are suffering from it," Guterres added. He also called on governments to impose taxes on the windfall profits made by numerous companies in the energy sector.

The reason for governments' short-sightedness is also made abundantly clear by the figures provided in the Adaptation gap report: the authors explain that sufficient adaptation financing can guarantee resilience and in particular support the most disadvantaged population groups. But above all, for example, "every billion dollars invested in adaptation to coastal flooding yields a reduction in economic damages of $14 billion." Likewise, "an annual investment of $16 billion in adapting the agricultural sector would enable 78 million people to avoid climate change-related hunger and malnutrition."

New capital must be found and existing financial flows redirected

So how can the issue be resolved and financing increased? Unep proposes a series of avenues involving both public authorities and the private sector. These aim to provide capital to small and medium-sized enterprises, or to redirect financial flows towards sectors that guarantee low-CO2-emission and climate-resilient development. "The multilateral development banks should allocate at least 50 per cent of the necessary funds and change their business models in order to mobilise far more private investment in community protection," Guterres added.

"We are in an adaptation emergency, and we must act accordingly," the United Nations Secretary-General concluded. The hope is that Cop28 will deliver responses both on this front and on that of mitigation.