The Unfccc draws up a balance – a disappointing one – of the action taken so far to implement the climate commitments made by the international community.
Much, much more needs to be done. And on every front. The balance sheet on the implementation of the Paris Agreement, now eight years after that document was adopted at the close of the twenty-first United Nations world climate conference, Cop21 of 2015, is deeply negative. It is provided by the Unfccc, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, in a report published on Friday 8 September, entitled "Technical dialogue of the first global stocktake", which represents one of the working foundations ahead of Cop28, to be held in Dubai between November and December.
The 90-page report sets out a series of "key commitments" that must be met if the targets established by the Agreement itself are to be achieved — in particular, limiting the rise in global average temperature to a maximum of 2 degrees centigrade by the end of the century relative to pre-industrial levels, while staying as close as possible to 1.5 degrees.
To do so it will be essential, for example, to reach a peak in emissions by 2025, as well as to develop renewable energy and move beyond dependence on fossil fuels, without waiting for technologies that are currently unable to deliver the necessary effectiveness, as is the case with CO2 capture and storage systems. The reason the Unfccc insists particularly on the question of the "peak" is that greenhouse gas emissions, despite the commitments of the international community, continue to rise. It will therefore be essential to reach a maximum as soon as possible and reverse course.
In the meantime, CO2, methane and other climate-altering substances dispersed in the atmosphere do nothing but continue to push global average temperatures higher (already reaching +1.2 degrees above the pre-industrial period average). And with them, the impacts of climate change: from stifling heatwaves to episodes of drought, as well as extreme weather events such as increasingly violent and frequent hurricanes, and devastating wildfires.
"There is a rapidly closing window in which we must significantly increase ambition in the fight against climate change, keeping the promises made by the international community," the document reads. It also suggests multiplying financial efforts, above all to ensure that the world's most vulnerable countries have what they need to adapt to the effects of the climate crisis.
The Unfccc also explains that achieving net-zero CO2 emissions targets — the so-called net zero promised by many governments and companies by 2050 — requires profound changes, which can no longer wait, across all sectors.
The mathematics, moreover, confirms the path that lies ahead: to meet the 1.5-degree target, according to the report "we will need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 43 per cent by 2030 and by 60 per cent by 2035, compared to 2019 levels." 43 per cent in seven years is equivalent to more than 6 per cent a year. Meanwhile, in 2022 those from the energy sector rose again, albeit "only" by 0.9 per cent.
