An Italy divided in two emerged from the 4 March election. In the north, the Lega dominates; in the south, the Movimento 5 Stelle has swept through. The final results, however, do not allow any coalition to govern. What happens now?
"An electoral earthquake", "a political cataclysm", a scenario that seemed impossible to contemplate, yet in reality appears to be merely a new chapter in the political saga that has been unfolding across Western democracies in recent years. From Trump's United States to Brexit, from France, which came close to having a far-right president, to our own country. The results now taking fairly clear shape show two parties – which represent an unmistakable break with the Italian political system as it has been known until now – reaching vote shares and percentages that perhaps even those directly involved could not have imagined.
We are talking about the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5s), which emerges by far as the largest party in the Italian parliamentary landscape with over 30 per cent of the vote, thanks to an incredible result in the South where in many areas it exceeded even 50 per cent, and the Lega (formerly Lega Nord), which has broken through across Italy, reaching 18 per cent – compared to 4 per cent at the general election five years ago – and becoming the leading party of the centre-right coalition. Conversely, both Forza Italia (Fi) – losing ground to its Lega ally in the northern regions – and the Partito Democratico (Pd) – which failed to hold on even in the "red" regions of central Italy – suffered losses even in their strongholds.
Fonte: Ministero dell'Interno – Sezioni scrutinate: 59.075/61.401All of this means, translated into seats, that the M5s wins 221 seats out of 630 in the Chamber of Deputies, followed by the Lega with 73 seats and the Pd with 86. Then Fi and Fratelli d'Italia, which are part of the coalition with the Lega, win 59 and 19 seats respectively. The situation is slightly different in the Senate, where the Pd is allocated 43 senators out of 315, followed by Fi with 33. The M5s obtains 112 seats, the Lega 37.
These extraordinary results, the product of a 73 per cent turnout, nonetheless do not allow anyone to govern, given that the centre-right coalition falls short of the magic threshold of 40 per cent in either chamber by just a few percentage points.
Statements from the party leaders trickled in throughout the day. The outgoing Agriculture Minister Maurizio Martina had pre-empted Secretary Matteo Renzi by declaring that "it is clear that for us this is a clear defeat. The more thorough assessments in the light of the final data will be made by Secretary Matteo Renzi during the day. For us this result is clearly negative."
Later than expected — it was already past 6pm — the Pd secretary Matteo Renzi appeared before the press, in Rome. "Today Italy finds itself in a political situation in which those who won do not have the numbers to govern. A situation that stems from the referendum affair of a year and a half ago," Renzi stressed. "Today, those who opposed those reforms have fallen victim to that choice." And he pressed on: "In this election campaign marked by lies, there is one bigger than all the others — namely that those who won were saying they would never make deals. That is not possible."
To announce his resignation from the leadership of the Pd, Renzi began with an anecdote: "In Pesaro, the centre-left fielded a minister who did an extraordinary job — the Interior Minister, Marco Minniti — acknowledged as such even by opponents. And yet, the candidate labelled 'unfit to stand' by M5s itself came out on top, against any assessment of merit. That is the symbol of this election campaign. It is clear from these indications that I must step down from the leadership of the Partito Democratico and make way for a new assembly. For a serious and definitive congress that allows the leadership to do what it was chosen through the primaries to do."
Renzi continued, reiterating that "during the election campaign we said no to a government with and of extremists, and on this we have not changed our minds. When we said no to the culture of hatred we were not joking. What separates us from Di Maio and Salvini is verbal hatred and anti-Europeanism, so you can form a government without us. Our place in this legislature is in opposition, as Italian citizens have asked of us. The Pd will not become the crutch of an anti-establishment government. We will be responsible, and our responsibility lies in remaining in opposition."
Quite the opposite tone came from Alfonso Bonafede, the Movimento 5 Stelle's candidate Justice Minister, who described M5s as "the pillar of the next legislature." Alessandro Di Battista, also of the Movimento, spoke of an "apotheosis that confirms that everyone will have to come and talk to us." Also enthusiastic was leader Luigi Di Maio, who at a press conference declared: "For the Movimento 5 Stelle these general elections have been a triumph: we are a political force that represents the entire nation. It is a result that goes beyond traditional frameworks. We are open to dialogue with all political forces: today for us the third republic begins, and the third will finally be the republic of Italian citizens."
Matteo Salvini of the Lega tweeted a "thank you" to voters shortly after the polls closed. On the morning of 5 March he held a press conference at which he added: "It is an extraordinary victory that fills us with pride, joy and responsibility, because millions of Italians have asked us to take this country back in hand, to free it from precariousness and insecurity." He made clear that "governing falls to us: the Lega has won within the coalition and will remain at the helm of the centre-right."
The ball now passes to President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella who, never more so than in this case, holds in his hands a power that is anything but symbolic, as he must choose to whom to assign the mandate to try to give shape to a broad-based government capable of winning a vote of confidence in Parliament. As pollster Renato Mannheimer also declared, "the possibility of a grand coalition as in Germany — after endless negotiations between the parties — could actually come about," all of which means "lengthy negotiations and a decisive intervention" by President Mattarella.
In theory, President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella could now, following the customary consultations at the Quirinale, assign the mandate to the leader of the coalition that "won" — or rather came first in the 4 March election. That is to say, the centre-right leader. The centre-right, however, did not put forward any candidate for prime minister during the election campaign, perhaps precisely because there was a great deal of uncertainty over which would be the leading party within the coalition — which then turned out to be the Lega. Salvini could therefore be the politician summoned by Mattarella to be consulted on the possibility of creating a parliamentary majority capable of voting confidence in a government led by him or by a figure he proposes.
Should Salvini fail in this "endeavour" — given that there are not many parties to which the united centre-right (which counts 267 deputies out of the 316 needed) can turn to join a coalition; both the Movimento 5 Stelle (with 228 deputies) and the Partito Democratico (109) have clearly expressed their opposition to the style and substance of the Lega's programme, branding it a "racist" and "anti-European" party — Mattarella would have to turn to Luigi Di Maio, the leading party across the parliamentary spectrum, and ask him to form a government. At that point, Di Maio would need to work out whom to turn to and with whom to reach a compromise. The Pd, or again the Lega but without Forza Italia and the other coalition parties? In this case it would be Di Maio, and no longer a strong and united centre-right, calling the shots. In either scenario the majority would be solid, at least in terms of numbers. The final hypothesis, already floated during the election campaign, is that the country goes back to the polls. But that is another story.
The new Parliament is inaugurated on 23 March and its first task will be to elect the presidents of the Chamber and the Senate.
