Overturning every prediction, Donald Trump has won the American election. He is the 45th president of the United States. Stock markets and markets crash.
"We will make America great again," Donald Trump thundered before guests and journalists gathered at the grand Hilton in Midtown, New York. At 02:40 local time (New York time), the data showed what almost no one had thought possible. He had surpassed the magic threshold of 270 electoral votes out of 538. Silence fell suddenly, less than thirteen blocks away, at Democratic headquarters, upon the announcement of the Republican victory in Michigan and Wisconsin — states that had become pivotal during the night following Trump's capture of Florida.
A turn of events that caught the media and pollsters by surprise. And perhaps the entire world. It seemed almost impossible that the candidate, judged "the most unfit in history" to lead the American superpower, would be sitting in the White House from January. Despite starting as an underdog, the candidate swept all the key states, including Ohio and North Carolina, winning 310 electoral votes against Hillary Clinton's 228. A result that points to a landslide victory, even though in the popular vote count the Democratic candidate received significantly more votes.
In Washington, Trump will also have the backing of a Congress firmly controlled by Republicans, who hold 51 seats out of 100 in the Senate and as many as 293 in the House (out of 435). In this way he will face no opposition in choosing a new Supreme Court justice, nor any opposition to repealing the Obamacare healthcare reform, pursuing an energy agenda heavily focused on fossil fuels, or implementing his proposals to curb immigration.
Voter turnout tells a very precise story. Many Americans dissatisfied with traditional politics came back to vote for the outsider, for the man opposed to the establishment. An angry, silent America, one that does not follow the mainstream outlets of American journalism, that does not even recognise Fox News, long a megaphone for Republican politics. An America made up of women and, above all, men who chose a president far removed from the tone of conventional politics, one who managed to gather votes by basing his campaign on Americans' deepest fears: immigration, recession, corruption of the political class.
The incoming president's hundred-day agenda, with his official inauguration set for 20 January 2017, was broadly outlined in the weeks leading up to the election. "First I will renegotiate Nafta, one of the worst agreements ever signed by our country," Trump declared at the end of October. The reference is to the free-trade agreement involving the United States, Mexico and Canada. Also on the table is the cancellation of the TPP, the trade deal with Pacific countries strongly opposed by China but championed by the outgoing administration of President Barack Obama. The President of the United States has the power to rescind treaties.
Therefore, US support for the newly born Paris Agreement on climate change is also at risk. "Thanks to executive orders, Donald will be able to cancel these treaties from the very first hours of his term," said Stephen Moore, an adviser to Trump. In Washington, Trump will also have the backing of a Congress firmly controlled by Republicans, who managed to contain the Democratic advance. In this way he will face no opposition in choosing a new Supreme Court justice, nor any opposition to repealing the Obamacare healthcare reform, pursuing an energy agenda heavily focused on fossil fuels, or implementing his proposals to curb immigration.
Two other major issues were on the ballot through state-level referendums: the legalisation of marijuana for therapeutic and recreational use, and the abolition of the death penalty. In both cases, California was the centre of attention, having opened up a 6-billion-dollar market for recreational cannabis use, thanks to a high voter turnout.
On the other hand, the state failed to abolish the death penalty (Proposition 62, with only 46 per cent of votes in favour), while approving the reform of death penalty proceedings (Proposition 66, with over 51 per cent of votes), which will in effect accelerate the execution of as many as 750 inmates currently on death row. The state had not carried out an execution since 2006. The same outcome occurred in Nebraska, where the abolition of the death penalty enacted in 2015 was overturned.
Marijuana was also legalised in six other states: Massachusetts, Maine and Nevada for recreational use, while Florida, North Dakota and Arkansas voted in favour of medical marijuana use.
Wall Street and other markets are anxiously awaiting the opening of trading to gauge how the global financial world will react to the news. In the meantime, Tokyo has lost over 5 per cent and Hong Kong 3.4 per cent, a sign of the nervousness that has already taken hold in the financial world. The price of gold shot up by 2.3 points within a matter of hours — a typical reaction in times of crisis, as investors rush towards safe-haven assets.
According to ratings agency Moody's, the candidate is by no means destined to "make America great again" (Make America great again was his slogan). According to the New York-based analysts, his presidency could cost two years of recession and hundreds of thousands of jobs. The tax-cut plan will primarily benefit the wealthiest tier of citizens, further widening the gap between rich and poor. As for the possible protectionist shift — the candidate proposed a 20 per cent tariff on all imports — it could significantly slow trade flows, hitting Mexico and China in particular, but also having knock-on effects on Italian exports in the luxury sector. Meanwhile, the peso, the Mexican currency, has lost 12 per cent — a record depreciation that will send interest rates soaring, dangerously slow the Mexican economy, and also comes against the backdrop of a potential reduction in remittances from Mexican migrants on US soil, which are worth billions of dollars.
The economic impacts will certainly be felt by European Union member states as well, while in terms of alliances, Brussels will find itself having to contend with an unwieldy and potentially dangerous friend. For the European Union, then, it is more important than ever to stand as a democratic bulwark of international relations, environmental policy and social development, in an inclusive and progressive direction.
