Most Italians, and perhaps most Europeans too, would not have expected such an eventful awakening on a quiet Friday at the end of June. And yet, despite the efforts of Labour, part of the Conservatives, and even Prime Minister David Cameron, with the referendum on Brexit the British – or perhaps in this case it is more accurate to say "the English" – chose to leave the European Union (EU).

The English, not the British. Indeed, Scotland and Northern Ireland actually voted to "remain European", unlike England and Wales. The final result therefore shows a country split down the middle – in the data and demographically (young people wanted to remain), geographically and politically. But that is another story, one entirely internal to a Kingdom united in name only.

Lee Fang ✓ @lhfang

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#BrexitVote age breakdown (young w/Remain vs old supporting Leave) resembles age breakdown for Bernie-Hillary

♥ 923💬 58 24 giu 2016 · Apri su X →

The real danger is the word anxiety

The story that matters to Europeans is a different one. International stock markets are reacting to the news with the classic panic of uncertainty. The curves of the main financial indices resemble runaway rollercoasters, and the pound has lost considerable ground against the major international currencies, including the euro and the dollar. Europeans who study, work or live across the Channel are worried because they do not know what bureaucratic obstacles the coming years may bring. And uncertainty and anxiety, as we know, are the first real enemy of the development of healthy, lasting relationships.

Keep calm and don't panic

But if only one could stay calm ("keep calm", in this case, fits perfectly) and look at this historic event with foresight, one would realise that the contribution the United Kingdom made to the European Union was already partial. Its departure will not influence, either positively or negatively, the search for solutions to the many disagreements that pit, for example, France and Germany against each other on economic matters. The United Kingdom is the only country to have exercised four opt-outs, four exemptions from as many regulations adopted by the EU. London did not join the Economic and Monetary Union, is not part of the Schengen Agreement, did not sign up to the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union, nor to the Area of Freedom, Security and Justice. London's influence in decision-making was always peripheral, shaping institutions by working around them according to its own needs. What the EU will miss most about the United Kingdom is its weight – both economic and historical – in negotiations with external actors.

What changes in the short term for Europe and the United Kingdom

The United Kingdom will now have to renegotiate the agreements governing its relations with Brussels. It is easy to imagine that it will remain within the European Economic Area, which provides for the free movement of goods, persons, services and capital. As chosen by Iceland and Switzerland, which, despite not being members of the EU, have also signed the Schengen Agreement with Brussels to further facilitate the free movement of citizens of the participating countries. Even before Brexit, the United Kingdom was not party to that agreement. The only thing the British will have to forgo during the transition period, while continuing to comply with European regulations, is participation in the decision-making process.

Dreams in the drawer

With that said: is it possible to look at the United Kingdom's formal departure from the Union as an opportunity? The answer is yes. European institutions and the governments of the states most committed to the ultimate aim of the project – which began on 9 May 1950 – could seize this moment to bring back to the table certain issues that have been left in the drawer for too long.

The political pillar could once again come to balance the economic and financial one that has dominated and sustained, not without upheavals, the Union in recent decades. Has the time come to play the last card to revive the fortunes of an international organisation sorely tested by the economic crisis of 2007 and by rampant populism (not only political)? Has the moment arrived to bring to life the long-dreamed-of United States of Europe? France, Germany, Italy and the other founding countries could resume negotiations, driven above all by the fear that other members, beyond the United Kingdom, might seek a way out. And thus see the foundations that they themselves laid to bring peace and stability to the continent after the end of the Second World War crumble away.

The courage to run together

A multi-speed Europe – the European Union, the Eurozone, the Schengen Area, the European Economic Area, to say nothing of all the opt-outs – has been an attempt to keep all the pieces of the continent together, all the players who might now be able to run together again, at last. The group of survivors could consolidate and prepare for the final sprint. But it takes courage. The domestiques who have always worked quietly in the background must try to rein in the loose cannons, the ambitions of those who dream of breaking away and winning in a solo dash. The reference is to the French or Italian Nigel Farages (leader of the UK Independence Party, Ukip) – from Marine Le Pen to Matteo Salvini – electrified by this anti-European "success" and willing to do whatever it takes to seize the opportunity to come to power, something that until a few years ago would have seemed absurd even to imagine.