United Kingdom out of the European Union. What will happen with Brexit
Rights — di Andrea Barolini
Brexit wins in London. After 43 years, the EU flag will probably stop flying on United Kingdom soil. Cameron announces his resignation.
United Kingdom out of the European Union. What will happen with Brexit
Brexit wins in London. After 43 years, the EU flag will probably stop flying on United Kingdom soil. Cameron announces his resignation.
The majority of United Kingdom citizens voted in favour of leaving the European Union. After forty-three years of membership, the blue flag with its fifteen stars will stop flying over London.
"Brexit" won the referendum battle with 51.9 per cent of the vote, against 48.1 per cent for the pro-Europeans. A result achieved above all thanks to the decisively pro-"leave" outcomes recorded in numerous cities in England and Wales.
By contrast, the deputy of German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke of a "dramatic day" for Europe.
Damn! Ein schlechter Tag für Europa. #EUref
Far-right leader Farage celebrates
One of the first politicians to speak was the leader of the far-right party Ukip, Nigel Farage: "Today we begin to dream of an independent United Kingdom. If the projections are confirmed, it will be the victory of the people, of ordinary people. We did it for the whole of Europe. I hope this is the beginning of the end of this failed project, and that it may lead us towards a Europe of sovereign nations," he declared.
Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, explained that Scotland, which voted 62 per cent for "remain", continues to "see its future within the European Union". Likewise, in Northern Ireland the vote against leaving the EU would have won by a landslide, with 74 per cent of support.
Cameron's resignation
From his Twitter account, Prime Minister David Cameron initially limited himself to thanking those who had gone to the polls. But rumours of a possible resignation by the head of government were already circulating. He then announced his intention to step down, explaining that in October "a new prime minister will have to be elected".
Thank you everyone who voted to keep Britain stronger, safer & better off in Europe - and thousands of @StrongerIn campaigners around the UK
Following the announcement, a wave of panic swept through financial markets. Tokyo lost eight per cent and sterling fell to its lowest level against the dollar since the mid-1980s. European stock markets all opened with massive falls. Piazza Affari was trading at around -11 per cent at midday.
What will happen now in the United Kingdom and Europe
But in concrete terms, what will happen at this point? Maria Romana Allegri, a lecturer in European Union law at the Sapienza University of Rome, explains that "technically the referendum served to gauge the will of the people. In that sense it was an advisory vote. It is clear that politically it is conceivable that the United Kingdom government will follow the direction indicated by the electorate, but in theory it need not do so. The vote, in other words, is not legally binding."
"Should the next British government – the legal expert continues – as one might expect, decide to implement the so-called Brexit, it will have to submit a formal application to the European Council in order to make that intention known, as provided for by Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon (theoretically, the subject could begin to be raised as early as the Council scheduled for 28 and 29 June, ed.). At that point, lengthy and complex negotiations will be launched to establish the concrete terms of such a withdrawal. They will last at least two years. But they could turn out to be considerably longer."
"A partial Brexit cannot be ruled out"
Furthermore, from a legal standpoint, "specific cases of difficult resolution could be raised. Let us imagine, for example, a British citizen who has an open case before the European Ombudsman, the civic defence body for European citizens: what will happen to their application? Not to mention that the London government will find itself compelled to embark on a gigantic legislative undertaking, necessary to regulate everything that is currently governed by European Union law. This too will take a very long time."
#Brexit, Bank of England pronta a sostenere economia con 250 miliardi di sterline tinyurl.com/hosbmvu
But it must also be said, Maria Romana Allegri continues, that "it is by no means certain that things will proceed with a view to a total withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU. In the sense that, even if it were to be formalised, it is possible that specific agreements might be adopted that maintain some kind of privileged link between London and Brussels. Along the lines of the relations that exist today between the EU and Norway, for example. In general, everything is nebulous at this point: there is no specific procedure within the EU legal order for managing a case such as the one now taking shape."
The concrete consequences for British citizens
If the withdrawal procedure is completed, in any event, what appears clear is that the first concrete consequences of the vote, as the international press reports, will be felt by British citizens themselves. Starting with those living in other EU countries. These number 319,000 people in Spain, 249,000 in Ireland, 171,000 in France and 100,000 in Germany. Those among them who are retired will probably see the value of their pension payments collapse immediately, due to the likely sharp depreciation of the pound. Those who are working, meanwhile, could be required (once Brexit is complete) to obtain a residence permit in order to continue their activities.
There will then be the question of deciding the fate of thousands of British nationals employed within European institutions. It is likely that many of them will seek to obtain Belgian nationality as soon as possible, so as to be able to continue working in the buildings of Brussels. Meanwhile, students wishing to go to the United Kingdom would no longer be able to benefit from the Erasmus programme.
What will Scotland do?
As mentioned, in Scotland "Remain" won by a large margin — that is, the desire not to leave the EU. The leader of the Scottish National Party, Nicola Sturgeon, stated that it "would be fundamentally undemocratic if Scotland were to find itself outside the EU, given that it voted clearly to remain within it". The scenario of a break-up of the United Kingdom appears remote, but cannot be ruled out.