Putin opens the door to a ceasefire in Ukraine. But only under certain conditions, which will largely be unacceptable to Kyiv. The Russian president responds in a highly cautious and ambiguous manner to the idea of a thirty-day truce, put forward on the initiative of the United States and accepted by Kyiv following the 11 March meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. "We agree with the proposals for a cessation of hostilities, but we proceed from the assumption that such a cessation must lead to a lasting peace and eliminate the root causes of this crisis," the Kremlin chief declared. In effect, he handed the hot potato back to the United States.

Putin's ambiguous response on the ceasefire in Ukraine

The Kremlin's position had already leaked out a few hours earlier through statements by Putin's aide, Yuri Ushakov, who had said that Moscow does not want a temporary truce but rather a long-term solution. And the ambiguous opening towards the ceasefire – hardly achievable under the conditions imposed by Moscow – was definitively expressed on 13 March by the Russian president at a press conference, at the end of a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko, who was visiting Moscow.

"The idea [of the ceasefire] is correct in itself and we certainly support it, but there are issues we need to discuss," Putin said. "We need to talk about it with our American colleagues and partners, perhaps call President Trump and discuss it with him, but we support the idea of ending this conflict by peaceful means."

The issues that need to be discussed – the "nuances", as Putin calls them – concern first and foremost who will be responsible for monitoring the truce along a front line nearly 2,000 kilometres long; how to prevent Ukraine from using the truce to rearm and mobilise; who will give orders and under what conditions; and what to do with Ukrainian troops retreating from Kursk, after Russian forces retook control of Sudzha, the main centre occupied by Kyiv in the Russian border region with Ukraine.

The recapture of Kursk

In recent days, reports emerged that Russian special forces infiltrated a gas pipeline to launch a surprise attack on Kyiv's soldiers in the Russian Kursk region. They reportedly crawled fifteen kilometres through the pipeline before striking Ukrainian units in the rear. The recapture of Sudzha was announced on Thursday by the Russian Ministry of Defence. Ukraine has not yet confirmed losing control of the town, but in recent days various officials had said that Ukrainian soldiers were withdrawing from several positions in the area.

"The situation there [in Kursk] is completely under our control and the group that invaded our territory is isolated," Putin said, laying the groundwork for what some analysts believe could be the ideal narrative to offer the population as a signal of progress towards victory.

A narrative, however, tarnished by a few technical glitches that slipped past the propaganda machine. In recent days, Putin visited the Kursk region, where he was filmed in camouflage fatigues issuing orders at a command post at an undisclosed location in the region. The footage of the visit, however, was released with audio that did not match his lip movements, prompting doubts and mockery. A blunder that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov attempted to play down, acknowledging the technical issues but stressing that the administration had chosen to prioritise timely reporting of events in Kursk, with production quality taking a back seat.

Trump's reactions

Despite Putin's ambiguity regarding the US proposal for a truce in Ukraine, President Donald Trump struck a rather optimistic tone. "We're getting word that things are going well in Russia," Trump said, adding however that "it means nothing until we know what the final outcome will be" and that, if Moscow does not sign up to the truce, "it will be a very disappointing moment for the world."

Trump also revealed that the United States has begun discussing with Ukraine the details of a possible final agreement, including the future of the occupied territories and who will control a large power plant – a likely reference to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station, the largest in Europe, currently under Russian forces' control.

Zelensky's comments

Putin's ambiguous stalling, which drags out the timeline of negotiations, did not sit well with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, who described Putin's approach as a "manipulative" strategy to prevent or delay the ceasefire in Ukraine.

"Putin is afraid to tell President Trump directly that he wants to continue this war and wants to continue killing Ukrainians," the Ukrainian leader said, adding that it is "the moment to increase pressure" on Putin with tougher sanctions, as Trump had threatened. According to Zelensky, Putin does not say "no" outright, but drags things out, making impossible solutions that would otherwise be reasonable. This is why "sanctions must be applied," Zelensky said. "We will continue to work with our American and European partners and with anyone in the world who wants peace, to compel Russia to end this war."

The meeting between Witkoff and Putin

Meanwhile, after hours of waiting, the Kremlin confirmed the meeting between Vladimir Putin and US envoy Steve Witkoff, who flew to Moscow on 13 March and late in the evening met the Russian president to discuss the American proposal to end the invasion. The meeting, according to the Russian press, reportedly lasted until two in the morning.

According to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, "additional information was provided to the Russian side" and "Putin conveyed additional information and signals to President Trump" through envoy Witkoff.

Peskov added that "there is an understanding" that a conversation between Trump and Putin is necessary, but the timing "has not yet been agreed upon."

Meanwhile the war goes on

This first round of talks, from which Europe was excluded – and which Europe has responded to by launching a massive rearmament plan to deter Russia and support Ukraine – thus concludes with cautious optimism on the American side, and deep scepticism from experts and analysts.

While Waltz described the Kyiv delegation as "very willing" to reach an agreement, in reference to the US-Ukraine meeting held in Jeddah, there are still far too many question marks on which it will be difficult to find common ground – starting with the presence of Western troops on Ukrainian soil to guarantee peace, Kyiv's renunciation of NATO membership, and Kyiv's cession of the territories occupied by Russia. And then there is the question of elections in Ukraine, which Moscow has on several occasions declared to be a conditio sine qua non.

The ball is therefore back in the United States' court, which must now broker "a permanent peace" with "Europe-led security" for Ukraine, as Michael Waltz put it.

The game is still open. "And the list of issues raised by Putin shows that it is not yet time to celebrate," commented Kirill Martanov, editor-in-chief of the independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta Europa. "Putin believes he can obtain from Ukraine everything he wants through Trump – namely a territory dependent on Russia, incapable of defending itself, outside the Western bloc and without military aid."

Meanwhile, the fighting continues and the death toll is set to rise. According to the United Nations, in over three years of conflict nearly thirteen thousand civilians have already been killed, thirty per cent more than in 2023. The wounded are estimated at around thirty thousand, while displaced persons exceed ten million. In the meantime, approximately 140,000 square kilometres of territory are contaminated by unexploded ordnance: a threat that will weigh on the population for many years to come.