Three years of conflict in Ukraine have been an environmental disaster as well as a humanitarian one: greenhouse gas emissions have skyrocketed.
A disaster. Humanitarian and social, of course. But environmental as well. Three years of conflict in Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022 with the invasion by the Russian army, have produced tens of thousands of deaths, destruction, and also carbon emissions amounting to 230 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e). The research, conducted by the non-profit association Initiative on GHG Accounting of War, which focuses specifically on monitoring the impact of conflicts on greenhouse gas emissions, highlights how the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has contributed significantly to climate change.
The greenhouse gases released as a result of and in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine increased by 30 per cent in the past year alone, reaching a total of 230 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent — equal to the combined annual emissions of Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, or of 120 million fossil-fuel-powered cars. The main sources of emissions, according to the report by the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War, are direct acts of warfare (aerial bombardments, advances and ground attacks), which alone caused 81 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Next come the necessary reconstruction activities following the destruction that has taken place (62.2 MtCO2e, 27 per cent of the total): reconstruction that will obviously require enormous quantities of construction materials, such as cement and steel — which are highly carbon-intensive — for many years even after a hoped-for end to the conflict.
Nearly 50 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent are attributable to fires that broke out for reasons clearly linked to the war, 19 million are due to the operation of energy infrastructure required for the war effort, 14.4 (6 per cent) to civil aviation, and finally 3.3 million tonnes to the needs of meeting the requirements of displaced persons and refugees.
2024 in particular saw a dramatic increase in forest fires, with 92,100 hectares burned, more than double compared to previous years. These fires contributed 25.8 MtCO2e to total emissions — again, double that of the previous two years combined. Why? According to the report's authors, and in particular Dutch researcher Lennard de Klerk, due to the combined effect of two factors: on one hand, the fact that parts of eastern Ukraine were considerably drier than average in 2024, a year certified as the hottest ever recorded globally. On the other, the fact that the ongoing conflict has clearly complicated firefighting operations, often making the fires uncontrollable and unmanageable. "2024 was the year when climate and conflict combined, leading to stretches of burned forest that far exceed anything we have seen before in Ukraine and in Europe this year," explains de Klerk.
The report underlines that the Russian Federation should be held accountable for these emissions and for the resulting climate damages, estimated at over 42 billion US dollars, based on a straightforward mathematical calculation: the application of a social cost of carbon equal to 185 dollars per tonne of CO2 equivalent. Will anyone pay? Given the current state of affairs — with Russia's diplomatic path suddenly made smoother following Donald Trump's arrival at the White House — it is very difficult to imagine.
Also on the subject of emissions, another report, from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, certifies that during the third year of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the European Union, while providing 18.7 billion euros to Kyiv in financial aid, paid 21.9 billion to Russia itself for fossil fuel imports. Despite economic sanctions. And despite the much-touted energy transition, which is indeed taking place (gas imports fell from 45 per cent in 2021 to 18 per cent in 2024) but which is still not enough, given that a quarter of Russia's revenues from fossil fuel exports still comes from Europe. From 24 February of last year to today, European imports of crude oil and gas from Russia have fallen by only 6 per cent per year in value, and by just 1 per cent per year in volume.
