17 October is the World Day for the Eradication of Poverty. Some bright spots, but also plenty of shadows, in the new data published by the World Bank.
Exactly 25 years ago, the United Nations established that 17 October is the World Day for the Eradication of Poverty. On the occasion of this anniversary, the World Bank is publishing the figures on poverty worldwide. While some of the news gives cause for optimism, it is equally true that we still have a very long road ahead if we genuinely want to eradicate poverty by 2030, as required by the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
In 2015 (the last year for which reliable data are available), 10 per cent of the global population was living in extreme poverty. This is the lowest percentage ever recorded, having fallen by one percentage point compared with 2013. The definition of "extreme poverty" applies to people living on less than $1.90 a day: there were 736 million such people in 2015, that is 68 million fewer than two years earlier.
Read also: Natural disasters responsible for 26 million more people pushed into poverty each year
"Over the past 25 years, more than one billion people have lifted themselves out of extreme poverty. Never in history has such a low global poverty rate been recorded. This is one of the greatest achievements of humanity in our time," declared World Bank president Jim Yong Kim.
We cannot declare victory just yet, however. The United Nations has established that, within just twelve years from now, poverty must not "simply" decrease. It must disappear entirely, in all its forms, throughout the world. If we are to reach this goal, Jim Yong Kim continues, "we need far more investment, particularly in human capital, to promote inclusive growth and reach the people who are still living in poverty. It is for them that we cannot afford to fail."
When we examine the World Bank data in detail, we find very deep fault lines dividing the five continents.
| Region | Poverty incidence | Number of people in poverty (millions) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 2015 | 2013 | 2015 | |
| East Asia and Pacific | 3.6 | 2.3 | 73.1 | 47.2 |
| Europe and Central Asia | 1.6 | 1.5 | 7.7 | 7.1 |
| Latin America and the Caribbean | 4.6 | 4.1 | 28 | 25.9 |
| Middle East and North Africa | 2.6 | 5 | 9.5 | 18.6 |
| South Asia | 16.2 | 12.4 | 274.5 | 216.4 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 42.5 | 41.1 | 405.1 | 413.3 |
| Total | 11.2 | 10 | 804.2 | 735.9 |
China's economic growth alone has managed to lift millions of people out of poverty. In East Asia and the Pacific, the average poverty rate in 1990 was around 62 per cent: the contrast with 2015, when it fell below 3 per cent, is remarkable. These two regions also perform well on the front of shared prosperity — that is, the ability to extend the benefits of economic development to everyone, including the least well-off sections of the population. This indicator is measured by tracking the income growth of the poorest 40 per cent of the population, which between 2010 and 2015 stood at 4.7 per cent per year in East Asia and 2.6 per cent per year in the Pacific.
In the Middle East and North Africa, paradoxically, the incidence of poverty has actually worsened, and one in seven people lives in sanitary conditions below basic standards. The main factors responsible are the conflicts in Syria and Yemen.
The most critical area is undoubtedly sub-Saharan Africa, where 413 million people currently live in poverty and where in all likelihood, by 2030, the poverty rate — far from reaching zero — will still remain in double digits. The country with the highest number of people living in poverty in the world (87 million) is Nigeria, which thus overtakes India in this unenviable ranking. Virtually all of the world's poorest countries (26 out of 27) are in sub-Saharan Africa: if things continue as they are, without significant changes of course, by 2030 this region will be home to 87 per cent of the people living in extreme poverty.
The absolute poverty indicator is one of the most important and significant, but it is not the only one. To deepen its assessments, the World Bank has identified a second threshold, set at $3.20 a day for developing countries and $5.50 a day for industrialised countries. All told, there are 3.4 billion people whose income falls below these standard values and who consequently struggle to secure basic goods and services. Given that the global population stands at around 7.5 billion, those who can be described as living in poverty amount to nearly half the total.
The World Bank highlights another piece of mixed news: the fight against poverty is continuing, yes, but at a slower pace than in the past. Over the 25 years between 1990 and 2015, the extreme poverty rate fell from 36 to 10 per cent, dropping by one percentage point every year. In the last two years, by contrast, the decline has amounted to only half a percentage point per year. According to the World Bank's preliminary estimates, by the end of 2018 extreme poverty is likely to affect 8.6 per cent of the world's population.
