For the first time, a calculation has been made of how much energy the world will need on a warmer planet. The greatest demand will come from space cooling.
According to meteorologists, the heatwave set to strike parts of central and Mediterranean Europe, Italy included, could break all-time records. Both in terms of temperatures and intensity. A vast scorching bubble that will reach unusual temperatures for the time of year, despite it being summer. And which in future will probably become the norm. But if we have to face periods of extremely high temperatures, how much more energy will we need? A study published in Nature Communications last Monday reveals this for the first time: between 25 and 58 per cent more.
The study, conducted by researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, the Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia, the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Cmcc) and Boston University, shows for the first time at a global level how the planet's energy demand will increase, driven primarily by indoor space cooling and air conditioning. The researchers carried out a global analysis using temperature projections from 21 climate models and economic and population projections from five socioeconomic scenarios. This information was then fed into a statistical model to calculate changes in demand for three fuels and four economic sectors, with the aim of determining how energy demand would change in 2050 compared with today's climate, under scenarios of modest and high climate change.
The various scenarios proposed by the mathematical models also assess the intensity of warming, and the study does likewise: global energy demand in 2050 would see an increase of between 11 per cent and 27 per cent if warming is modest, and between 25 per cent and 58 per cent if warming is high. The largest increases will be experienced across vast areas of the tropics, as well as southern Europe, China and the United States.
"In general terms, our societies will adapt to changing temperatures by increasing space cooling during the warm seasons and reducing heating during the cold seasons," explains Enrica De Cian, professor at the Università Ca' Foscari and researcher at Cmcc, in a statement. "These changes in space conditioning will have a direct impact on energy systems, as businesses and households will require less natural gas, oil and electricity due to lower heating needs, and conversely more electricity to meet the greater space cooling demand."
But while a warmer world would likely bring a reduction in demand for fossil fuels used for heating, on the other hand demand for electricity will increase exponentially. And how will this energy be produced? If everything is not staked on renewables and the decarbonisation of the entire energy sector, it means that efforts to reduce emissions could prove futile, or at any rate insufficient.
We already know that, alongside the transport sector, the refrigeration and air conditioning sector is the only sector to have increased its greenhouse gas emissions, according to the European Environment Agency. From 1990 to 2017, emissions of HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons used in refrigeration) increased by 81 per cent.
Among the scenarios presented are also those in which there could be additional adaptation costs that will affect economic systems and household incomes. "The lower the per capita income, the greater the share of that income households will have to dedicate to adapting to increases in energy demand," said Bas van Ruijven, researcher at IIASA. "In the case of rapid population growth considered by some scenarios in our study, the rise in temperature by 2050 could expose half a billion lower-income people in countries across the Middle East and Africa to energy demand increases of 25 per cent or more. The poorest will therefore have to contend not only with financial challenges, but also with the greater risk of heat-related illness and mortality, particularly in areas with unreliable electricity supplies or where grid connections are entirely absent."
As we are about to be struck by an anomalous heatwave that will likely set some unwelcome records, significant energy peaks will be recorded, putting pressure on the production capacity and electricity grids of many countries. And this will happen as we all seek a little relief from the heat.
