Oil, coal, natural gas. According to a study published in Nature, the choice is obligatory if we want the temperature not to rise beyond 2°C.
It would be 82 per cent of coal, 49 per cent of natural gas and 33 per cent of oil — the proportions of fossil fuels that must not be extracted if we want temperatures to remain below 2 degrees centigrade by 2050.
This is the finding of a study published in Nature by Christophe McGlade and Paul Ekins, researchers at University College London (Ucl), who calculated the quantities of fossil fuels — broken down by geographical region — that would need to remain buried in order to mitigate climate change. The findings confirm the estimates of the Ipcc itself.
We have estimated that the unhindered use of fossil fuel reserves from now until 2050 is incompatible with the greenhouse gas emissions limit assessed as necessary to avoid exceeding 2 degrees centigrade of warming."
In short, the majority of our estimated fossil fuel reserves should, starting today, remain underground.
Also of interest is the breakdown provided by the study, which divides the percentage by geographical region and is well illustrated by an infographic from the Guardian. The United States, for instance, should not extract 92 per cent of its coal, while Canada should leave more than 80 per cent of its oil buried. Australia should forget about coal, while Africa should limit the use of fossil resources across all sectors.
"The lesson of this work is beyond doubt clear: when you're in a hole, we need to stop digging," Bill McKibben, co-founder of 350.org, told the Guardian. "These numbers show that unconventional and 'extreme' fossil fuels — such as Canadian tar sands — simply need to stay in the ground."
