Economic growth of €22 trillion, 65 million new jobs and 700,000 premature deaths avoided, between now and 2030. This is what working for the climate means.
The global economy is entering a new era. But the next two or three years are the point of no return: the initiatives undertaken at a global level during this period will definitively determine the outcome of the fight against climate change. If we act in favour of the climate, we can enjoy unique benefits (economic ones included). If, on the other hand, we remain still, we will pay a very steep price. The report New climate economy, produced by the Global commission on the economy and climate, pulls no punches, reeling off a series of figures, each more striking than the last. It was presented by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, a few days before the Global climate action summit in San Francisco.
New climate economy examines five economic systems: energy, urban development, food and agriculture, water resource management and the circular economy. For each of them, it describes a "business as usual" scenario in which the current model is simply carried forward with no changes, comparing it to a scenario in which, conversely, political choices and investments are oriented towards safeguarding the climate and the health of the planet.
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The comparison is unsparing. Choosing the second path, by embarking on a transition towards sustainable growth and clean energy, means growing the global economy by $26 trillion, just over €22 trillion, between now and 2030.
If governments around the world set to work eliminating subsidies to fossil fuels, redirecting them towards renewables and imposing a cost on CO2 emissions, they could collect $2,800 billion a year through to 2030, a figure equivalent to India's current GDP. Money that could in turn be reinvested in activities of public interest, or used to reduce the tax burden on the poorest sections of the population.
And that is not all. Transitioning to this new economy means creating 65 million new jobs in low-environmental-impact sectors by 2030. That is the equivalent of the entire combined workforce of the United Kingdom and Egypt.
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Not to mention the most important benefits of all, in terms of human lives: within the same timeframe, from now to 2030, a total of 700,000 premature deaths from air pollution would be avoided worldwide.
These figures – the New Climate Economy researchers stress – are in all likelihood far too conservative. The models used by analysts are not yet able to capture 100 per cent of the scale and dynamism of the economic and financial opportunities that can be unleashed by the energy transition, let alone reflect the risks of climate change. Until now, for example, even the most accurate analyses of the energy sector have consistently underestimated the annual growth of renewable energy. And it is possible that the same thing is happening, for example, on the electric mobility front.
