Optimistic forecasts from the European Climate Foundation on electric mobility: by 2050, transport-related emissions could be slashed, air pollution drastically reduced, and 206,000 jobs created.
An injection of optimism arrives from Brussels, specifically from the offices of the European Climate Foundation (Ecf), thanks in part to the contribution and consultancy of Cambridge Econometrics. Through the decarbonisation of transport and the advent of electric mobility, it could be possible to reduce CO2 emissions linked to the sector by 88 per cent, contribute to Europe's economic growth, and avoid the import of 49 billion euros' worth of oil between now and 2030.
These figures and forecasts are contained in the recent report "Fuelling Europe's Future: How the transition from oil strengthens the economy", which drew on various contributions from car manufacturers, civil society, industry associations and consumer groups, with the aim of exchanging views on the technical, economic and environmental issues associated with the development of low-carbon technologies for cars and the shift from oil to domestically produced electricity and hydrogen.
The scenarios drawn up show how the transition to electric mobility would have an impact across all sectors, from economic ones to those related to the health of European citizens. By 2020, the report states, electric and hybrid cars will still be more expensive than petrol and diesel models, but the crossover would come by 2030, when EV, hybrid and hydrogen vehicles would become competitive with those powered by fossil fuels.
By 2030, a quarter of sales would be covered by electric vehicles, a quarter by hybrids and plug-in hybrids, while the remaining half would be covered by mild hybrid models (where the electric motor "assists" the diesel or petrol engine). Under this scenario, there would be an 88 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions linked to the transport sector by 2050: from 605 million tonnes in 2018 to around 70 million tonnes by mid-century. The adoption of this type of technology would reduce emissions of NOx by 70,000 tonnes per year.
This transition would lead to a fall in oil imports. Today Europe imports 89 per cent of its crude oil: with electric mobility, imports would be reduced by 49 billion euros, which would thus remain within the borders of the old continent. The economy would also be driven by the creation of new jobs, though this would require the retraining of existing workers towards new technologies, as underlined by Luc Triangle, Secretary General of IndustriAll, the European trade union that today represents 7 million European workers: "The decarbonisation of transport will have an enormous impact on the employment structure of the sector. New jobs will be created, especially in the shift to hybrid vehicles over the next decade, but others will be lost in the long term as we move towards battery electric cars. This requires permanent monitoring in order to anticipate the social consequences of this structural change."
Clearly, the future must be approached with care. To support millions of electric, hybrid and hydrogen vehicles, at least 23 billion euros will need to be invested in charging infrastructure, of which 9 billion in publicly accessible charging points. Meanwhile, electricity grids will also need to be modernised, so as not to create excess demand and an imbalance in tariffs. The future of electric mobility is still a blank page.
