Iraqi Kurds turned out in large numbers to vote in the referendum on the independence of their territory, Kurdistan. A strong reaction from Baghdad. The consequences remain uncertain.
Update 27 September – The president of the Kurdish autonomous region, Massoud Barzani, announced a victory for the yes vote on independence. A strong reaction from Baghdad.
The Kurds may have laid the groundwork for the establishment of their own independent state. Almost 80 per cent of the population in the autonomous provinces of Erbil, Sulaimaniyah and Dohuk, as well as in the (disputed) province of Kirkuk, went to the polls on Monday 25 September to take part in the independence referendum.
Voting operations took place without incident, despite a curfew having been imposed in some areas to ensure security. Even the first reactions appeared measured: in Erbil, the most important city in the Kurdish region, there were neither outbursts of celebration nor acts of violence. The count results, on the other hand, are not yet officially known: the electoral commission is working through the ballots and is expected to report its findings during the course of today, Tuesday 26 September. Everyone expects, in any case, a large victory for the "yes" vote on independence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-60u6IoOhA
Some doubts about the organisation of the vote have already emerged, however. According to Oriane Verdier, correspondent in Erbil for French radio station Rfi, "a Syrian Kurd was able to vote even though he was not even in possession of an Iraqi identity card." Furthermore, "some residents of Kirkuk stated that they were aligned with the cause but had not voted for fear of reprisals from pro-government forces."
Meanwhile, the headmistress of a school explained to the broadcaster that she had received threats from Baghdad on account of being a public official: "They told me that if I voted they would sack me. But let them do as they wish: the referendum is the most important thing." In a neighbourhood where Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen live side by side, international media report on peshmerga commanders already with weapons in hand, ready to respond to any potential attack by the Iraqi army: "We are prepared to make sacrifices. We do not regard any Iraqi community as an enemy, but if we are threatened, we will defend ourselves," one of them declared.
Kurdish leaders appear cautious in any case. The president of Iraqi Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani, has made it known that the vote will not in any case be immediately followed by a declaration of independence. It will instead serve as a prelude to "serious discussions" with Baghdad on the matter. It remains to be seen, however, how willing the Iraqi government will be in this regard: Prime Minister al-Abadi has reiterated his opposition to the referendum, which he considers "a unilateral decision that threatens the unity of the country and its security".
Furthermore, the parliament of the capital – in a session attended by Arab deputies but not Kurdish ones – voted on a resolution calling on the executive to deploy the army throughout the area. Scepticism towards the referendum was also reiterated from several quarters abroad: United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres expressed "concern over the risks of destabilisation of the area", while the United States said it was "saddened" by the decision to hold the vote, explaining that it supports "a united, federal and democratic Iraq".
A similar position to that of Turkey, Syria and Iran. The three neighbouring nations are calling for respect for the charter established after the end of the First World War. This is the Treaty of Lausanne of 1923, which effectively split the hypothetical Kurdish state into four parts. But one of the main cruxes of the issue is, in reality, the one linked to oil, in particular that of the province of Kirkuk, which is not by chance the subject of battles in recent years between Baghdad, Kurdish peshmerga and fighters of the Islamic State.