While the rest of the world greeted the news of the ceasefire in the Syrian conflict with relief, in the north of that same Middle Eastern country some reacted with far greater caution. The agreement between Russia, Turkey, Syria and the rebels – reports an analysis by the French daily Le Monde – may have been reached on the basis of specific conditions, one of which, imposed by Turkish president Erdogan, would have been particularly clear: to prevent at all costs the Kurds from being able to create a state of their own. The highest price of the ceasefire finalised by Moscow and Ankara could therefore be paid by the Kurdish Ypg militias (People's Protection Units).

For the first time, Russia provided air support to the Turkish army

To try to decipher the consequences of the reshuffling of cards that has taken place in Syria over recent days, it is necessary to examine carefully the reports concerning the places where fighting is still ongoing. The ceasefire, in fact, does not apply to operations carried out to counter Isis fighters. Thus, at the very moment when Moscow and Ankara were finalising, together with the Damascus government, the halt to military operations across the entire Syrian territory, the Turkish news agency Dogan announced a bombardment carried out by the Russian air force. The operation, completed on the night between last Wednesday and Thursday, was carried out on the northern city of Al-Bab. The major development is that for the first time Turkey (a Nato member state) received direct air support from Russia.

The Kurds, engaged for years in the fight against Isis

At this point, some background is needed. The Turkish military offensive in Syria, aimed at pushing jihadists and Syrian Kurdish fighters southward, had been launched on 24 August. Dubbed "Euphrates Shield", the operation had received the go-ahead from Moscow and achieved a series of successes against Isis in the localities of Djarabulus, Al-Rai and Dabiq. Turkish forces then set their sights on capturing Al-Bab — already besieged from the south by the Syrian army and from the east by the Ypg Kurds themselves, who have been fighting the Islamic fundamentalists for years.

Thanks to their commitment, the Kurds have over time secured the support of United States forces, also engaged in the tangled Syrian conflict. In particular, Kurdish militiamen have made significant advances in the battle towards Raqqa, the last stronghold of the Islamic State in Syria, fighting alongside American special units.

"Moscow has abandoned the Kurdish militiamen"

Notwithstanding this, Erdogan continues to see Syrian Kurds solely as the brothers-in-arms of the Pkk, the Kurdistan Workers' Party, classified as a "terrorist organisation" by Ankara. "If we halt our offensive," the Turkish president explained, "we will find ourselves facing a new Treaty of Sèvres." The reference is to a document — never ratified and dated August 1920 — that provides for the creation of a Kurdish territory in south-eastern Turkey. In this, Erdogan has in effect received the support of his enemy Assad.

"The Russian air raids on Al-Bab bode nothing good for the Syrian Kurds," writes Le Monde, "since the new Russian-Turkish partnership has been forged at their expense. Putin granted the Kurds token support (military aid and the opening of a representative office in Moscow in February), but the Kremlin then abandoned them." So much so that the Kurds were not even invited to the peace negotiations organised by Russia in January in Astana.