The present and future of electric cars. Manufacturers' strategies. And possible scenarios. The E-Mobility Report sheds light on every aspect of electric mobility. And explains why it accounts for just 0.1 per cent of the market in Italy
First figure. In 2016, 800,000 electric cars were sold worldwide. Second figure. In Italy, just 2,560 — that is, 0.1 per cent of the national market. So says the recent E-Mobility Report drawn up by the Politecnico di Milano. As the numbers make clear, electric mobility is encountering serious difficulties in our country. What is missing we explored recently in an interview with Bruno Mattucci, CEO of Nissan Italia, who mapped out an ideal roadmap of what manufacturers and the government could do together to support the electrification of mobility. Some movement has already taken place, and new rules have recently been introduced to the Highway Code that at least protect against illegal parking in spaces dedicated to electric car charging.
But the numbers remain there, highlighting a form of mobility that in Italy — one of the countries with the oldest vehicle fleet in Europe (with all the consequences this entails in terms of emissions, consumption and safety) — is far from matching the performance of France, Germany and England, to say nothing of the achievements of the Nordic countries.
"Our country has so far failed to attract private investment alongside public funding to develop charging infrastructure, and there is no systemic vision"; Professor Vittorio Chiesa, director of the Energy&Strategy Group at the Politecnico di Milano, summed up the longstanding issue neatly on the sidelines of the recent E-Mobility Report. To which must be added the other central issue: the lack of purchase incentives.
But let us return for a moment to the figures that emerged from the Report, because they give pause for thought. In 2016, approximately 800,000 electric cars were sold worldwide (+40 per cent compared to 2015), with an increasingly significant prevalence of full electric vehicles, at 63 per cent of the total. In Italy, the number falls to 2,560 cars, worth 75 million euros — that is, 0.1 per cent of the entire car market. We are talking about "zero growth" — indeed, a slight reversal compared to 2015. In short, the first Italian report on the sector is unambiguous: analysing the firm data and growth trends of electric mobility worldwide, Italy faces the very real risk of appearing to be the third world of mobility. So much for autonomous driving…
According to findings from the E-Mobility Report, from January to September 2016 approximately 518,000 electric cars were actually sold worldwide, across full electric and plug-in hybrid models — representing a 53 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2015. China is the world's largest market, with 225,000 electric cars sold in the first three quarters of 2016 and an impressive growth rate of 118 per cent compared to the same period in 2015. The figures are also rather encouraging for the United States (109,000 units sold, +33 per cent compared to 2015) and Europe (151,000 units, +23 per cent).
Looking at electric car sales across the Old Continent, nearly one in four is Dutch. Norway follows, accounting alone for around 18 per cent of the market. France, the United Kingdom and Germany account for 12, 14 and 12 per cent respectively. And Italy? Alternative mobility in our country represents just 1 per cent of the European market.
Around fifty models from fifteen car brands are competing for the global market. The Nissan Leaf holds firm at the top of the world's best-selling electric cars, followed by the Tesla Model S which, despite its price, holds a 7 per cent market share, placing it in second position. Chinese carmakers such as BYD Auto (unknown to us but with a strategic alliance with Daimler AG specifically for the production of electric cars) cover nearly 10 per cent of the global market. And while around twenty electric models are currently available in Europe, by December 2020, with the arrival of players such as Honda, Opel and Porsche, the offering will almost triple.
If it is true, then — as the data gathered by the Politecnico di Milano Report clearly shows — that the increase in the number of electric car models is an established trend, manufacturers are approaching the subject with very different strategies. Hyundai, Kia, Mitsubishi, Ford and Renault have opted for "focus", preferring to concentrate their efforts on a single segment (generally that of compact two- or three-box saloons) by creating electric variants of most incoming new models. The "diversification" camp, on the other hand, includes Mercedes, Citroën, Nissan, Tesla, Peugeot and Audi, which will instead offer fewer models but will be present across all segments, from city cars to SUVs through to luxury saloons.
We have said it many times: one of the reasons that can explain the poor sales performance of electric cars in Italy is certainly the lack of incentive mechanisms. And the proof comes from a comparative analysis conducted across ten countries (Italy, China, Japan, USA, France, Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, UK) that measured direct purchase incentives — that is, all those measures (reductions in the price of the vehicle or the direct costs of use and road access) that provide bonus incentives for users of electric and hybrid vehicles. These range from Norway's 20,000 euros to the Netherlands' 9,500, while China and the United States provide incentives of 8,500 and 9,000 euros respectively for electric vehicles, dropping to 5,000 for hybrids. And Italy? Our country, with a counter-value of between 2,000 and 3,000 euros, brings up the rear in Europe.
The E-Mobility Report also makes clear the fragmented state of infrastructure. There are 1.45 million charging points recorded worldwide at the end of 2016, showing strong annual growth (+81 per cent). Compared with 2010, that figure has grown 73-fold. But consider these numbers: while public charging stations today account for around 13 per cent of the total (190,000 units), it is private ones that are driving the sector, with growth of over 600,000 charging points during 2016. On the private side, the USA, China and Japan lead the way, while on the public side China is the undisputed leader. In Europe too, private far outstrips public: for every 70,000 public charging points installed, there are 400,000 private ones. The study cross-referenced the number of charging points and the number of vehicles in circulation over the same period, and the average ratio that emerges is approximately 0.86 vehicles per individual charging station. In the long run, this ratio should settle at around one vehicle per charging point, a figure that countries such as China (1.05 vehicles/charging point) and Sweden (0.99) are already close to today.
Italy, with a ratio of 0.66 electric vehicles/charging points, once again confirms that it is particularly far behind. In our country, there are an estimated 9,000 charging points, of which around 7,500 are private (approximately 80 per cent) and 1,750 are public (20 per cent).
It is the so-called PNIRE (Piano Nazionale Infrastrutturale per la ricarica dei veicoli alimentati ad energia elettrica), drawn up by the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport (MIT), that governs the development of charging infrastructure in our country. The 2020 target is the installation of 4,500–13,000 charging points (with a power output of 22 kW or less) and 2,000–6,000 "high power" ones (above 22 kW); the financial provision currently stands at 33.5 million euros: the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport co-finances projects submitted by regions and local authorities, up to a maximum of 50 per cent of the costs incurred for the purchase and installation of the equipment.
Installing charging stations used to be the sole preserve of public administration. Today, large retailers, shopping centres and hospitality venues have joined local councils. And projects from 2017 show further novelties, such as the emergence of fuel operators among those interested in electric infrastructure: a weak but significant signal, proof that market growth is expected.
"First and foremost, the limited capacity, at least until now, to attract private investment alongside public funding to develop charging infrastructure," clarified Vittorio Chiesa, director of the Energy&Strategy Group at the Politecnico di Milan. "We have moved from an initial phase in which as much as 95 per cent of funding was public to the latest survey, which sees that share fall to 'only' 72 per cent. Our country lacks a 'systemic' vision and interoperability between charging infrastructures among the various operators." It would suffice to follow virtuous examples such as the German platform Hubject, which has 240 partners in 17 different countries, connecting around 40,000 charging points across three continents (Europe, Asia and Oceania).