The extreme heat waves that have repeatedly struck Europe since the end of May, claiming the lives of at least 32,000 people, will result in very, very high losses from an economic standpoint. The calculation was carried out by insurance company Allianz, which estimates the total cost at 113 billion euros. And it is Italy that will foot the heaviest bill.

For Italy, the cost of extreme heat estimated at 27.8 billion euros

According to the analysis, our country bears the greatest burden, amounting to 27.8 billion euros. In second place is Germany, with 25 billion, followed by France with 20.1 billion. Adding Belgium (9.4 billion) and the Netherlands (9.2 billion), these five nations together account for 81 percent of the total cost.

The 113 billion euros refer to a total of thirty European countries, for which the cost amounts to nearly half a percentage point of their combined GDPs (with some peaks, as in the case of Cyprus, of 1.74 percent). It is also equivalent to approximately 60 percent of all losses from extreme weather events.

Extreme thermal anomalies in northern and eastern Europe

The Allianz analysis notes that northern and eastern Europe recorded some of the highest thermal anomalies, with Norway leading at +3.74 degrees Celsius (compared to a global average of +1.38 degrees). "Heat can reduce output, even in cases where no visible damage occurs," the report underlines. It also sounds a warning for 2027: "It is likely that next year too will be characterised by extremely high temperatures and will rank among the hottest ever recorded."

The near future will also be shaped by the presence of El Niño, a cyclical climate phenomenon consisting of an anomalous warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific, which is shaping up to be of extraordinary intensity, so much so that it has already been dubbed a "super El Niño". Its peak, as indicated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), is expected towards the end of the current year, and its impacts are already being felt in numerous regions of the world.

Concerns over El Niño: "It could cost the world 451 billion dollars"

According to Allianz, the phenomenon "could cost the world 451 billion dollars, with the bulk of the damage concentrated in 2027." In particular, the insurance company's analysis explains that the lion's share of losses will be concentrated in China, the United States and India (nearly 60 percent), with 147, 91 and 50 billion dollars respectively. In terms of GDP loss, the worst consequences will be felt by South Korea and Indonesia, with proportional declines of 0.51 and 0.41 percent respectively. The impact will be more contained across the twenty-seven member states of the European Union, which will collectively lose 24 billion dollars.

A further cause for concern is the fact that the drought episodes and floods that El Niño will trigger or exacerbate in various regions of the world will impose severe impacts on the agricultural systems of numerous nations. This will in all likelihood be reflected in global prices for many food commodities, weighing on households' purchasing power, including in Europe.