The concrete consequences of El Niño are beginning to make themselves felt across numerous regions of the world. The cyclical climate phenomenon, which consists of an anomalous warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific, is shaping up to be of extraordinary intensity — as is now widely known — to the point of already being dubbed a "super El Niño". Its peak, as indicated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), is expected by the end of this year.

El Niño is already causing very high thermal anomalies in the equatorial Pacific

The same United Nations body has clarified that the phenomenon is normally associated with an increase in rainfall and flooding in certain regions of Latin America, East Africa and the southern United States. Conversely, it favours drought conditions in northern and eastern Australia, Indonesia, southern Africa and parts of South Asia, due to reduced monsoon activity. Likewise, a reduction in hurricane activity in the Atlantic is anticipated.

In this case, the data relating to El Niño's intensity give cause for serious concern. The US agency NOAA has warned that the intensification of the phenomenon is already translating into particularly pronounced thermal anomalies, with temperatures on the surface of the Pacific running 3 degrees above average and as much as 10 degrees in the deep waters. As a result, East African countries are bracing for rainfall well above normal — or even violent precipitation — during the "short rainy season", which runs from October to December. In some nations, the impacts are already being felt. Others, meanwhile, are taking steps to avoid being caught off guard.

Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand fear for the agricultural sector and drinking water

Indonesia, in particular, ranks among the most exposed countries, since monsoon rains are heavily dependent on Pacific ocean currents. This means that the stronger El Niño becomes, the more the water temperature in the western part of the ocean cools, significantly reducing rainfall. It follows that a particularly intense phenomenon poses a direct threat to the agricultural sector, as well as to the availability of drinking water: the risk, in this respect, could prove catastrophic.

Several neighbouring nations are also particularly vulnerable. This is the case, for example, of the Philippines and Thailand, which have already recorded a rise in food prices, linked in particular to the production of rice: the foodstuff most directly dependent on rainfall.

In Australia, drought conditions are likely, wheat farmers on alert

At the same time, Australia has also begun to feel the first unsettling effects: the waters to the north and east of the vast Oceanian island have undergone a cooling. Here too, the reduction of moisture in the air will in all likelihood trigger drought conditions during winter and the coming spring.

During the cold season, there is also a risk of frost waves that can equally harm the agricultural sector. In particular, wheat growers have already been called upon to adapt their farming strategies in response to El Niño.

Latin America, a continent extremely exposed

In Latin America too, the impacts of the climate phenomenon are anticipated — and in some cases already being experienced. In Honduras, for example, numerous climatologists have warned of the serious risks now unfolding. In the western part of the Caribbean nation, a severe drought situation has persisted since last May.

The agricultural sector already in crisis in Honduras

This is a direct consequence of climate change, now compounded by El Niño itself. According to a report by Radio Canada, citing an American non-governmental organisation, in the Marcala region, many producers have already lost nearly half of their harvests. From maize to coffee, numerous crops are suffering from the lack of rainfall. This has repercussions not only on the economic conditions of the population, but also on food security. And it is likely that prices will rise in Europe too, especially for imported produce such as, indeed, coffee.

In Peru, thousands of seabirds have died of starvation

The situation appears even more alarming in Peru, as reported by the New York Times. As early as mid-July, television channels broadcast harrowing images of thousands of seabirds (pelicans, cormorants and penguins, among others) found dead on northern beaches and on islands off the coast. Further south, nearly 10,000 sea lions were discovered lifeless.

The Ministry of the Environment consequently called for an inquiry to be opened: the hypothesis of avian influenza was quickly ruled out. And the conclusion of the analysis was unambiguous: "The autopsies indicate that the animals' stomachs were empty, with traces of plant matter not normally part of their diet. They starved to death," Lady Amaro, a marine wildlife specialist at the National Forest and Wildlife Service, explained to the French daily Le Monde.

Such widespread excess mortality represents one of the first effects associated with El Niño. The austral autumn and winter (from March to September) were marked by record temperatures both on land and at sea. In some cases, readings exceeded 6 degrees Celsius above the seasonal average — more than enough to upend ecosystems, animal migration patterns and the animals' ability to feed themselves.

A clear example is provided by anchovies, a key species in the food chain off the Peruvian coast, which normally circulate in the cold waters of the Humboldt Current, flowing from south to north along the left flank of Latin America. The result: the catch has dropped from 1.3 million tonnes in May 2025 to 32,800 this year. Given that exports reach more than 40 nations and account for 1 per cent of Peru's gross domestic product, the scale of the crisis becomes clear.

At the same time, torrential rains are already being recorded, such as those that struck the capital Lima in mid-August, home to 10 million people ill-prepared for rainfall of such magnitude.

Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay brace for flooding

In Argentina, the national meteorological service has confirmed that El Niño's impacts are already being felt and will intensify through next spring. In the north-eastern regions in particular, above-average rainfall is forecast. In some cases, local accumulations could exceed 300 millimetres.

This raises fears for the major river basins — not only in Argentina but also in Paraguay and Uruguay. The risk is not only of flooding, but also of severe damage to agricultural output, as well as threats to the safety of communities living along waterways, as in the case of the Paraná and Iguazú rivers.

Mega-fires in Colombia, reduced vessel traffic through the Panama Canal due to El Niño-driven drought

In Colombia, fears are mounting over the development of mega-fires, such as those that broke out in the departments of Tolima and Nariño in the second half of August. The combined effect of the climate crisis and El Niño risks making the situation even worse, due to weather conditions and the state of the vegetation.

Meanwhile, in Panama, authorities are grappling with water levels in the eponymous Canal, where the drought caused by El Niño has forced them to reduce the number of vessels permitted to cross. The current daily average stands at 32 transits, down from 36 in August, with a further drop to 29.5 expected from October.

In Africa, dozens of nations exposed to El Niño's impacts

Numerous African nations are also bracing for the effects of warming waters in the equatorial Pacific. Madagascar, for instance, is one of the most exposed countries, alongside Mozambique and Malawi, according to a report published by Ocha (the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs).

"From late 2026 onwards," the UN body explains, "some areas of eastern Africa could experience above-average rainfall, increasing the risk of flash floods, river flooding and landslides." At risk are Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, parts of Tanzania and Uganda, "particularly in low-lying and urban areas with poor drainage."

"Flooding could damage homes, roads, schools and health facilities, while simultaneously hampering the delivery of humanitarian aid," the Ocha document continues. It also notes that "some communities are still recovering from the 2024 floods caused by El Niño," as in the case of Tana River County in Kenya.

But concerns are also growing across North Africa and the Arab world. While some areas may receive more rainfall than usual, fears centre on exceptionally high temperatures and extreme weather events.

Europe's exposure remains uncertain and will in any case be indirect

The situation regarding Europe is considerably more complex. Information on this front is overlapping and often appears contradictory. Even before the summer, it had been incorrectly suggested that seasonal heat would be exacerbated by El Niño, whose consequences will instead make themselves felt at the global level in the coming autumn and winter.

More recently, reports have suggested that "amid extreme pressure anomalies, a polar vortex with never-before-seen temperatures could descend — particularly over northern Europe, but with significant knock-on effects for Italy too — along with a related gas and energy crisis of potentially unprecedented proportions." El Niño would thus bring an extreme cold snap to Europe during the winter months.

The reality, as Luca Lombroso explains to ilmeteo.net, meteorologist at the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, is quite different: "The influence on Europe is indirect and occurs through teleconnections." As for the "breakdown" of the polar vortex, it "does not mean, even if it were to occur, colder temperatures in Europe. It depends on where the cold lobe moves, because if it sits further east or further west, it can conversely give rise to warm-pattern blocking situations."

"A polar vortex breakdown caused by El Niño does not necessarily mean frost"

Speaking to the French publication Reporterre, Éric Guilyardi, climatologist at the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace and a specialist in El Niño, shares the same view: the phenomenon "has a very indirect influence, and there are many other factors far more important when it comes to European meteorology."

On the contrary, the seasonal forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Ecmwf) confirm that winter temperatures are likely to be above average. The only region showing a "neutral" signal is northern Europe. The Mediterranean, inc