The thirtieth United Nations World Climate Conference – Cop30, scheduled to take place in Belém, Brazil, from 10 to 21 November – will open with yet another alarming piece of news. It was released on Tuesday 4 November by the UN Environment Programme (Unep), in the 2025 edition of the Emissions Gap Report, which shows how large the gap still is between the targets set by the international community to limit global warming and what governments around the world have pledged in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The data show that the gap, today, remains enormous.

Unep's alarming data on climate action

The document assesses the official commitments submitted by states to the Unfccc, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. These are the Nationally Determined Contributions (Ndc), now in their third "edition". They were first submitted by governments in 2015, ahead of Cop21, which led to the adoption of the Paris Agreement. Unep noted at the time that those promises were largely insufficient, as they would result in an increase in average global temperature, by the end of the century, of more than 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

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New national climate plans have barely moved the needle on limiting global warming. Yet there is hope.

According to UNEP's latest #EmissionsGap Report, accelerated adoption of renewable energy and falling costs mean we have the tools to cut emissions now: unep.org/news-and-stori…

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The Paris Agreement, by contrast, stipulates that warming must be kept below 2 degrees, and as close as possible to 1.5 degrees. The difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees would already be the difference between a climate crisis and a climate catastrophe, according to the Ipcc, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in the Special Report 1.5 published in October 2018.

New emissions pledges will lead to 2.3–2.5 degrees of global warming (if honoured)

The Ndcs were therefore revised in a second version, deemed once again insufficient by the United Nations, which consequently called on governments to make a third attempt. The new pledges were supposed to be submitted by 30 September, but not all countries in the world have done so. To date, analysis of these documents indicates that we are heading towards climate warming of between 2.3 and 2.5 degrees. Certainly better than what was projected ten years ago, but still well beyond the targets set by the international community itself.

Naturally, all of this assumes that the pledges made by governments are fulfilled in their entirety. Something that, as history shows, is by no means guaranteed. The United States represents a telling example in this regard: although not sufficiently ambitious, the policies adopted during the two presidencies of Barack Obama and that of Joe Biden had moved in the direction of reducing dependence on fossil fuels. Donald Trump, however, is aiming to reverse the trend, relaunching the coal, oil and gas supply chains.

The United States will not send any government delegation to Cop30

The shadow of Trump will therefore certainly hang over Cop30: the United States will not send any government delegation to Belém. A more than clear message from the White House. Officially, the Washington administration justified the decision with these words: "The president engages directly with world leaders on energy-related issues, as evidenced by the trade deals and historic peace agreements, which give more space to energy partners." A statement that is fundamentally incoherent — and from which, quite strategically, the words "environment" and "climate" are conspicuously absent.

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What is the UN climate conference and why does it matter?

As world leaders, scientists, civil society representatives, activists & others head to Brazil to discuss priority actions to tackle the climate crisis, find out more about #COP30.
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"The Ndcs have certainly shown some progress, but at an absolutely too slow a pace – commented Inger Andersen, executive director of Unep. "We need unprecedented emissions reductions, within an ever-narrowing time window and in an increasingly difficult geopolitical context."

Projected emissions down 15 per cent, but a -55 per cent would be needed

In concrete terms, full implementation of the current NDCs would bring about a reduction in global emissions of around 15 per cent by 2035, compared to 2019 levels. To align with a trajectory that would allow the 1.5-degree target to be met, however, a -55 per cent reduction would be required. The gap, in short, remains enormous.

It is for this reason that, despite all the problems, Cop30 nonetheless represents a unique opportunity to attempt to reinvigorate climate action. "The time to act is now, but our leaders are asleep at the wheel, driving us towards catastrophes like Hurricane Melissa, human suffering, economic losses and climate injustice", stressed Jasper Inventor, a senior official at Greenpeace International.

Brazil announces positive results ahead of Cop30, but approves drilling off the Amazon coast

In an attempt to "lead by example", the nation hosting Cop30, Brazil, announced that it had recorded a decrease in its greenhouse gas emissions of 16.7 per cent between 2023 and 2024. This was partly thanks to a significant reduction in deforestation in the South American nation, compared to the catastrophe that unfolded during the far-right administration of Jair Bolsonaro.

Nevertheless, several non-governmental organisations point out that Brazil, now led by the progressive Lula, has also continued to support certain hydrocarbon extraction projects, including one off the Amazon coast, for which the state-owned company Petrobras began the exploration phase just a few weeks ago.

What will be discussed at Cop30 in Belém

But given this context, what will actually be on the table at Cop30? Due to the considerable logistical problems related to the hotel capacity of the city of Belém, the leaders' summit (which the G77 group will attend) – at the conclusion of which Lula and Guterres will issue a call to revitalise climate action – will take place before the official opening of the conference.

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Thank you for bringing us together at the gates of the Amazon dear @LulaOficial.

As COP30 begins, you can count on Europe's full support.

Brazil is showing great leadership.

Whether it is about putting a price tag on carbon. Or fighting for our forests.

We also discussed the

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Over the course of the two weeks of work, unlike what has happened at recent COPs, there should be no single "dominant" theme. The transition will be discussed, with an attempt to make progress beyond the Global Stocktake adopted at Cop28 in Dubai, which featured the vague and toothless formula of "transitioning away from fossil fuels" — a phrase objectively open to interpretation, devoid of dates or concrete commitments.

Forests, loss and damage, adaptation, fossil fuels

A particularly significant topic, for obvious geographical reasons, will be the protection of : Brazil has proposed a Tropical Forests Fund, which should mobilise 125 billion dollars for conservation, with 25 billion guaranteed by sponsors. Along the same lines, climate finance will also naturally be on the agenda, picking up from the discussions held at Cop29 in Baku on $300 billion per year in transfers from the Global North to the Global South. The hope is to significantly increase this figure, which is widely regarded as insufficient.

Finally, the issue of adaptation will be addressed, with negotiators having to clarify the targets of the Global Goal. And, of course, to secure the necessary funding, including with regard to the question of losses and damages suffered by the nations least responsible for climate change, resuming the work launched at Cop27 in Sharm el-Sheikh.