The twenty-eighth United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), hosted in Dubai by the United Arab Emirates, has reached its halfway point. Time, then, for a first provisional assessment. One that appears, objectively, disappointing. Here are the pledges made in the first week of the conference, as well as the state of play of the negotiations under way.

The announcements made so far at COP28 and the state of play of negotiations

The loss and damage fund

The vast majority of announcements to have come from COP28 so far are marked by voluntariness and promises. Nothing binding, then, or very little. And the keeping of commitments remains to be verified over time. Starting with the first announced objective: the creation of a fund to compensate the most vulnerable countries in the face of climate change for the losses and damages they have suffered (loss and damage).

As is well known, this is a decision that had already been announced at the previous COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, in 2022, and which in Dubai was merely confirmed. Many doubts about how the fund will operate also remain. First of all, it will be managed, at least initially, by the World Bank: a choice that had been strongly opposed by countries of the global south. For them, the World Bank is synonymous with conditionality: some governments are asking whether, in order to access the fund, they will be required in return to adopt draconian privatisation plans or to achieve balanced budgets.

It is also still not clear who will be able to access these funds: it seems evident that, for example, small island nations that risk disappearing from the map due to rising sea levels caused by the melting of polar ice cannot be excluded. Equally, nations with the lowest GDP and Human Development Index figures should be included. In this way, however, a country such as Pakistan, for instance, would be unable to access the funds, despite being extremely exposed to the impacts of global warming.

Finally, the fund can at present count (at least in theory) on a few hundred million dollars promised by various governments. Vulnerable nations have already made clear that the wealthy world "is using the wrong unit of measure: we expect commitments in the order of billions, not millions".

Tripling renewables

A second commitment made at COP28 concerns renewable energy. A document signed by 118 nations calls for the installed capacity of these clean sources to be tripled, while simultaneously doubling the annual rate of improvement in energy efficiency from 2 to 4 per cent.

However, in the second draft of the final document published on the official website of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Unfccc), there is no agreement on this point either. Although this possibility is indeed evoked, the "no text" option also remains on the table. The conference presidency therefore does not consider it impossible that the commitment on renewables could, in the end, fall through.

Tripling nuclear power

A far smaller number of states (around twenty, including the United States, France, Japan and the United Arab Emirates) have pledged to triple the installed capacity of nuclear power plants. This is a proposal that appears more focused on national interests than on the needs of the climate: the year 2050 is cited as a possible completion date for the process. Science tells us, however, that we have very few years left before exhausting our "carbon budget" — that is, the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions we can still afford to release into the atmosphere without exceeding the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming above pre-industrial levels.

The renewed interest in nuclear power also runs up against a declining trend in the sector. Data updated to the first half of 2023 show that 407 reactors are in service worldwide, with a total installed capacity of 365 gigawatts, across 32 nations. That is four units fewer than in 2022 and 32 fewer than the peak recorded in 2002, according to the 23rd annual World Nuclear Industry Status Report (Wnisr).

Production, moreover, reached 2,546 terawatt-hours in 2022: a figure down 4 per cent, which brought nuclear's share of global commercial electricity generation to 9.2 per cent. The lowest figure in the past four decades.

Phasing out fossil fuels

On one of the key points of COP28, the deadlock is plain to see. Already broached during the twenty-sixth United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26 in Glasgow) and then provisionally set aside at the subsequent COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, the question of coal has returned to the negotiating table. In this respect, that is a positive development. But the draft published by the Unfccc does not refer to all coal, only to unabated coal — that is, coal used without CO2 capture systems at power plants.

The hope so far has been tied to the fact that the presence of an oil executive as COP28 president, while probably an obstacle to any commitment to exit other fossil fuels, could at least allow progress to be made specifically on coal. Here too, however, while one option put forward proposes text calling for a 75 per cent reduction by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, in unabated coal, the draft also evokes in this case the "no text" option. That is, avoiding the subject altogether in the final cover decision.

Simon Evans @DrSimEvans

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#COP28 draft texts latest

More texts have been dropping over past 24hrs but a third of negotiating tracks still haven't published drafts

* no text on adaptation global goal
* mitigation work prog still just list of bullets
* no new text on stocktake

carbonbrief.org/interactive-tr…

♥ 76💬 1 4 dic 2023 · Apri su X →

The same draft reflects a similar impasse with regard to fossil fuels as a whole. Three options are on the table: the first provides for an "orderly and equitable" phase-out. Without, however, setting any dates. In this respect, the dispute between phase out and phase down is repeated. Agreeing to put the former formula in writing, but without setting out a clear road map to get there — with final and intermediate dates — potentially means indefinitely delaying the energy transition.

The second option present in the text instead provides for "an acceleration of efforts towards the phase-out of unabated fossil fuels, reducing their use in order to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions in energy systems by or around mid-century". And the third option — the most damaging — also remains: "No text", no text on the subject whatsoever. Finally, the document also evokes the possibility of acting on subsidies granted to fossil fuels. But on this point too, there is no agreement among states.

Simon Evans @DrSimEvans

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#COP28 stocktake latest

There is not going to be a third draft text (yet), version 2 will be handed over to ministers as-is

BUT the current doc is "not an agreed text and represent[s] work in progress"

Ministerial leads South Africa + Denmark have a huge job on their hands…

♥ 19 6 dic 2023 · Apri su X →

As for methane — a greenhouse gas that remains in the atmosphere for less time but has a climate-altering potential dozens of times greater than CO2 — it should be noted that the United States announced its intention to join the Global Methane Pledge, an initiative to which 150 nations have already signed up and which aims to reduce emissions linked to that gas by 30 per cent by 2030.

A further commitment made on the subject at COP28 was the one announced by 50 oil companies. These companies pledged to "decarbonise" their operations. In reality, however, the declaration concerns only the extraction and production of oil and gas. In practice, consumption is entirely excluded — yet it accounts for 80–90 per cent of total emissions across the lifecycle of the two fossil fuels. As if that were not enough, the commitment sets a very distant deadline of 2050. This suggests that the 50 companies intend to continue extracting, producing, refining and selling oil and gas for another thirty years.

The cherry on the cake: the commitment made by the companies in question is entirely voluntary.

Health impacts of climate and food

At least one piece of good news emerged from the fact that an official document was approved on the health consequences of climate change. It was signed by a group of 120 nations, which call for "health to be placed at the centre of climate action". Here too, however, the text reads primarily as a statement of intent rather than a set of concrete commitments. It is telling that, precisely to avoid the initiative collapsing, a decision was made not to cite fossil fuels as the most harmful from a public health perspective.

COP28 UAE @COP28_UAE

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Bill Gates has emphasized the key role of innovation in improving climate health, during the COP28 Health Day Opening Session: Unpacking Political and Finance.

@BillGates #COP28 #ClimateHealth

♥ 264💬 77 3 dic 2023 · Apri su X →

During the first days of COP28, food security was also on the agenda, with new pledges made by the wealthy world in favour of the planet's most vulnerable nations.

Agriculture and livestock

A declaration was also launched by a group of 130 nations concerning the agricultural and livestock sector. Here again, the pledges were made on a voluntary basis. Moreover, the text was widely criticised for lacking concrete commitments. In substance, it did little more than acknowledge the existence of the problem. Nor was any mention made of the need to gradually shift dietary habits towards including as little meat as possible.

Mobilising finance

The first week was also expected to include a "finance day". As is well known, banks, investment funds and insurance companies continue to pump trillions of dollars into the coffers of companies that, in various capacities, still exploit coal, oil and gas. Unless the direction of these capital flows is changed, reaching the targets of the Paris Agreement will effectively be impossible.

COP28 at the halfway point, negotiations uphill on all fronts

Environment — di Andrea Barolini

After a week of negotiations at COP28 in Dubai, what emerges from the draft official documents is above all the divisions between governments on climate.