Cop28, president Al-Jaber: “The science does not call for a phase-out of fossil fuels”
Environment — di Andrea Barolini
The Guardian has published highly controversial statements made by Cop28 president Al-Jaber.
Cop28, president Al-Jaber: “The science does not call for a phase-out of fossil fuels”
The Guardian has published highly controversial statements made by Cop28 president Al-Jaber.
"I will not, under any circumstances, join any alarmist discourse. No scientific study, no scenario states that a phase-out of fossil fuels will allow us to reach the 1.5-degree target. A reduction and a phase-out of fossil fuels is, in my view, inevitable. But we need to be serious and pragmatic. Show me a roadmap for a phase-out that is compatible with socio-economic development, unless we want to send the world back to the cave ages." These statements, which we have reproduced verbatim, were made by the president of the twenty-eighth United Nations world climate conference (Cop28), Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, in conversation with former Irish president Mary Robinson during a video conference.
"I will not join the alarmist discourse"
The story was broken by the British daily The Guardian, which published the conversation in full; it is very recent, dating back to 21 November. The words have not failed to provoke outrage and numerous reactions, starting from the scientific community.
Among the many responses was that of Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, who in a letter co-written with Michael Mann replied to the Emirati oil executive with these words: "The science IS (written in capitals, ed.) behind the need to phase out fossil fuels, dear Sultan Al Jaber. And you cannot negotiate with science!".
@dpcarrington @ben_stockton This my letter to the #COP28 President, written on behalf of the climate system itself with @MichaelEMann. There IS science behind the need for a fossil fuel phase out, dear Sultan Al Jaber. And you cannot negotiate with science!
Al Jaber, who is, as is well known, simultaneously president of Cop28 in Dubai and chief executive of the state oil giant Adnoc, has in fact stated, to say the least, something that is not true. It is not true that there are no scientific scenarios according to which a phase-out of fossil fuels would not be necessary to limit the rise in average global temperature to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, relative to pre-industrial levels.
The vast majority of scientific studies call for a phase-out of fossil fuels
On the contrary, the overwhelming majority (almost all) of the analyses carried out by climatologists, glaciologists, meteorologists and experts from around the world for decades indicate that the only possible path to avoiding a breach of that threshold is precisely one that involves the abandonment of coal, oil and gas. The fact that the president of a Cop denies this — whatever the context of his words — is at once surprising and troubling. At the very least, it would have merited an immediate denial or correction.
In the interview, Al Jaber also repeatedly asks his interlocutor to explain what the roadmap is for achieving a farewell to fossil fuels. Here too, there are only two possibilities: either the Emirati oil executive has never read the Ipcc reports — the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — or he has read them and is pretending not to know. In particular, the sixth report states in plain terms what the various options available are for achieving the necessary phase out from coal, oil and gas.
The question of "when" cannot be used as an excuse
The Cop28 president adds, as a reason why it is not possible to immediately abandon fossil fuels, the risk of "returning to the cave ages". In this sense, it is stating the obvious: no one imagines it would be possible to switch off every power station, every combustion engine, every boiler in the entire world within the next 24 hours. It is, however, unthinkable that this could serve as a justification for inaction, or for acting in slow motion.
In the meantime, a response came first from the Cop leadership: "This video truly reflects how some people constantly seek to tarnish our presidency from day one. Al Jaber has been very clear that he believes in science. He is a technical person, a scientist, an engineer. In that conversation he was simply asking for help in understanding how to do it. How to reach the 2050 targets in a responsible, equitable and just way. How to act on a technological level. How to make good investments."
Then the Cop28 president himself spoke: "We are here because we believe in science and we respect it. All of the work of the presidency is focused and centred on science."
How, then, should Sultan Al Jaber's words be interpreted — words in which he cites both "reduction" (phase down) and "phase-out", while attempting a clumsy contextualisation, insisting that there must be no "alarmism" and declaring, in effect, that the process must not be too rapid (precisely so as not to send us "back to the caves")? In this respect, a number of elements may be helpful, starting with the previous statements of the Adnoc chief executive himself.
According to Al Jaber, 600 billion dollars a year must be invested in fossil fuels
In 2021, Al Jaber stated in plain terms that, in his view, fossil fuels still require very substantial investment. During a conference, he spoke of the need to channel a further 600 billion dollars a year into the sector between now and 2030. These are capital amounts so large as to make it impossible to imagine that, in his view, they could be spent with an imminent phase out in mind.
A second piece of evidence is far more recent. During the first days of Cop28, the commitment by fifty oil companies to "decarbonise" their operations was announced with great fanfare. An apparently extraordinary stance — but, precisely, only apparently: the companies in question, in the declaration they signed, commit only to the part concerning the extraction and production of oil and gas. Not to their consumption, which however "accounts for" 80–90 per cent of total CO2 emissions.
We have only a few years left to save the climate
Not only that: this partial commitment is set for 2050. Which clearly implies that the idea of the fifty companies in question (and of the Cop28 president himself, who is among them, and who blessed and praised the initiative) is to continue producing oil and gas for another thirty years. Science, however, tells us that our "carbon budget" — that is, the quantity of CO2 we can still afford to release into the atmosphere without breaching the 1.5-degree threshold — will be exhausted within seven years at current rates. To top it all off, the commitment by the fifty hydrocarbon giants was signed on a wholly voluntary basis.
In the same declaration, the companies committed to decarbonising operations linked to methane by 2030. But always with the limitations described. So much so that the United Nations secretary-general himself, António Guterres, commented, explaining that "the promises made are clearly insufficient relative to what is needed".
Al Jaber's position diametrically opposed to that of Guterres
The Portuguese diplomat, for his part, opened Cop28 by stating that "the only path we have to avoid exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold is the phase-out of fossil fuels." And if this cannot be done, as noted, overnight, talking about a phase down without setting firm dates for a phase out could represent a death sentence for Earth's climate. A "reduction", in fact, could in theory be so slow as to push the global average temperature to catastrophic levels.
A final element that can help us understand Al-Jaber's true intentions comes from former US Vice President Al Gore. On Sunday 3 December, in Dubai, he pointed the finger at the "climate record" of the United Arab Emirates, the country hosting Cop28, and in particular at Adnoc's impact in terms of greenhouse gas emissions.
Al Gore reveals the emissions of the United Arab Emirates and Adnoc
Al Gore showed a map of the main sites responsible for emissions from the Arab nation and a series of satellite images: "The Abu Dhabi national oil company still claims it produces no emissions through its oil and gas transport operations. But there they are, visible even from space," he declared, pointing to a blue patch above a hydrocarbon extraction site.
What is beyond dispute is that Cop28 can only be considered a success if it indicates not only the need for a "reduction" (already barely compatible, in itself, with new investments of 600 billion dollars a year) but also a clear date, consistent with what science tells us, for "exiting" fossil fuels. Because this is not a matter of opinion, but of simple mathematics.