Cop 23 opens in Bonn. New records for climate change in 2017
Environment — di Andrea Barolini
On the opening day of Cop23, a report by the World Meteorological Organization provides alarming new figures on climate change.
Cop 23 opens in Bonn. New records for climate change in 2017
On the opening day of Cop23, a report by the World Meteorological Organization provides alarming new figures on climate change.
CO2 rising in the Earth's atmosphere, rising sea levels, record temperatures and a proliferation of extreme weather events. 2017 is not yet over, but it is already being described by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as yet another year capable of demonstrating how present climate change already is.
"2017 will probably be one of the three hottest years on record"
The international body stressed in particular that it is "highly likely that 2017 will rank among the three hottest years ever recorded" since data began to be monitored regularly, that is, from 1880. So far, the global average temperature at the surface of land and oceans has been, on average, 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than in the pre-industrial era.
WMO releases climate statement at start of #COP23 Monday. @CopernicusECMWF shows global warmth continued in October bit.ly/2iZtNfA
The WMO report comes as the Twenty-Third United Nations Climate Change Conference (Cop 23) opens in Bonn, Germany, running until 17 November. "The last three years," explained the organisation's secretary-general, Petteri Taalas, "have been the hottest on record and, in the long term, point to a clear trend of global warming. We have recorded exceptional heat peaks in Asia, with temperatures exceeding 50 degrees Celsius. But also record-intensity hurricanes in the Atlantic, which reached as far as Ireland, devastating floods caused by monsoons that affected millions of people, as well as a terrible drought in East Africa." "The undeniable authorship of many of these phenomena," the official continued, "lies with the climate change caused by the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which are themselves the product of human activities."
In 2016, 23 million climate refugees already recorded
"All of this," added Patricia Espinosa, secretary of the Unfccc, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, "highlights the risks that populations, economies and the Earth's vital systems will face, should our actions fall short of the ambitions set out in the Paris Agreement," reached at the end of Cop 21 in December 2015. Recent studies show that the risk of illness or death linked to heatwaves has grown steadily since the 1980s, and that today nearly one third of the world's population is at risk. In 2016 alone, 23.5 million people were forced to flee their homes after being struck by weather-related disasters. In Somalia, for example, 760,000 refugees were recorded, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. As for the economic dimension, the International Monetary Fund has explained that, even today, the worst consequences of climate change are being felt in areas where 60 per cent of the world's population lives.
Striking dataviz by @kevpluck shows how rapidly CO2 concentration is accelerating. #COP23 must step up #ClimateAction! #ParisAgreement
Climate change in figures
The WMO then summarised the most important figures relating to climate change and its consequences. The picture that emerges is alarming, and should spur the 196 delegations from as many countries gathered in Bonn into action.
Global temperatures at record levels The most evident symptom of the upheaval is naturally the rise in global average temperature, which in the period January–September 2017 was 0.47 degrees above the average for the period 1981–2010. And this without even the contribution of the El Niño phenomenon, which had been present during the two previous years. The average temperature (provisional figure) between 2013 and 2017 will likely be 0.4 degrees above the three decades ending in 2010, and 1.03 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
Precipitation Argentina, western China and parts of South-East Asia recorded above-normal rainfall, as did the Sahel region in Africa. The United States, in the first nine months of the current year, broke all rainfall records. In India, moreover, although the national figure showed a five per cent decline, monsoon rainfall was concentrated in the north-western regions, causing severe flooding. By contrast, Canada, the Mediterranean region, Somalia, Mongolia, Gabon and South Africa recorded a sharp drop in precipitation. And in Italy, the period January–September 2017 was the driest on record.
Snow and ice The extent of the Arctic ice cap was well below normal in the early months of the year, reaching record lows between January and April. In summer, the deficit relative to the "normal" surface area for the period 1981–2010 was between 25 and 31 per cent. The situation was identical in the Antarctic region, where both minimum and maximum extent records were set, in early March and mid-October respectively.
Sea levels The global average sea level in 2017 may prove relatively stable compared with the previous year, when a record value was nonetheless reached relative to the average for the period 2004–2015. Furthermore, summer data appear to indicate new increases.
Sea surface temperature The average sea surface temperature in the early months of the current year also reached record levels or remained very close to historic highs. The warming of tropical seas, in particular, contributed to the phenomenon of coral bleaching, especially in Australia. Unesco stated in June that 29 coral reefs listed as world heritage sites are now threatened by excessively warm seas.
Ocean acidification The oceans absorb up to 30 per cent of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This helps to mitigate climate change, but also causes an increase in ocean acidity: the Aloha station in Hawaii has revealed that the pH of the water has risen progressively since the 1980s. This threatens numerous primordial organisms and can have repercussions throughout the entire food chain.
Levels of carbon dioxide (C02) surged at “record-breaking speed” to new highs in 2016, @WMO announced on Monday.
bit.ly/2ifkS5v
bit.ly/2ifkS5v
Greenhouse gases The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere between 2015 and 2016 was the highest ever recorded in history: 403.3 parts per million, on average. The average figure for 2017 will only be officially provided next year, but initial data analyses indicate that the growth in levels of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide has in all likelihood continued.