If the average global temperature over land and ocean surfaces has risen, by the end of the century, by more than 2 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels, the effects will be disastrous for Asian countries and those bordering the Pacific. Guaranteeing food security across the continent will become increasingly difficult, and numerous conflicts over resource grabbing will arise. This could lead to mass migrations: the number of people forced to abandon their homes could reach the staggering figure of one billion.

Health problems and a surge in conflicts will cause exceptional migrations

The catastrophic scenario is outlined in a detailed report by the Asian Development Bank, produced in collaboration with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, which also highlights the fact that, if the world does not change its means of production, global warming will reach +4 degrees Celsius by 2100. A figure that would be very far from the one set out in the Paris Agreement, which aims for "a maximum of 2 degrees", while "making every effort to stay close to 1.5".

"The possibilities for adapting to climate change will be drastically reduced – the report from the Asian banking institution explains – given that prolonged heatwaves, rising sea levels and increased precipitation will disrupt ecosystems and lead to severe consequences in terms of food supply for the population." This, in turn, will lead to "growing health problems" and "a surge in conflicts and waves of migration."

Temperatures at +8 degrees Celsius in some areas by 2100

A chaotic and dramatic situation that, albeit to a lesser extent and only in certain areas, the report says will occur even if the targets of the Paris Agreement are met. Furthermore, while the current trend points to a possible average rise of 4 degrees, in some regions the figure would be significantly higher: in Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as in the north-western portion of China, the thermometer could reach 8 degrees higher, rendering certain areas entirely uninhabitable. The hardest-hit country, moreover, will be Bangladesh, already known as one of the poorest nations in the world.
The number of regions at risk of flooding will then increase in step with the temperature: sea levels will rise by 2.3 metres for each degree Celsius. And drinking water, finally, will become an increasingly scarce resource, not only because of climate change but also due to the demographic growth the world will experience.