Climate change will make floods increasingly frequent in Europe
Environment — di Andrea Barolini
According to an international study, flood damage across the continent could cost up to 17 billion euros a year.
Climate change will make floods increasingly frequent in Europe
According to an international study, flood damage across the continent could cost up to 17 billion euros a year.
Floods risk multiplying across Europe as a result of climate change. This is the finding of a study published on 24 January in the scientific journal Climate, which underlines that an increase in such events will likely be a reality even if the rise in average global temperature over the Earth's land and ocean surfaces is limited to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, relative to pre-industrial levels.
Floods will affect between 650,000 and 780,000 people every year
To reach this conclusion, the researchers considered three scenarios. In the most optimistic case — which, as noted, foresees a rise of 1.5 degrees — the risk is of seeing flood damage across the continent double. Costs could reach 15 billion euros a year. In addition, the number of people affected by floods would increase by 86 per cent, reaching approximately 650,000 a year.
Substantial flood risk increase for Central & Western Europe due to global warming, even under 1. 5°C temperature rise, according to a study with @CLESUniofExeter & @metoffice ⬇️#floods #climatechange ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/news/gl…
These are, therefore, particularly grim projections — and they would worsen further should average temperatures rise by 3 degrees: in that case, the value of damages could reach 17 billion dollars a year, growing by 145 per cent compared to today. Meanwhile, the number of citizens who will suffer the consequences of flooding could reach 780,000 (an increase of 123 per cent).
Exceptional rainfall in Europe: the Rhine, Seine and Rhône in flood
Recent news reports, moreover, give a measure of what could happen in the future: torrential, persistent rainfall has struck Germany, Switzerland and France in particular, causing three of Europe's most important rivers to burst their banks: the Seine, the Rhône and the Rhine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFZ21d7pxN4
"This work," the study's authors commented, "confirms that the impact of climate change on flood risk in Europe will be significant and widespread. Our results also show, however, that it can be limited if the objective of keeping average temperature growth at the level indicated in the most optimistic scenario is achieved." This is, moreover, the principal commitment undertaken by the international community under the Paris Agreement, reached in the French capital in December 2015.