Update 28 October, 11.55pm. Brazil's new president is Jair Bolsonaro. His victory was confirmed at 7.18pm local time (11.18pm in Italy) when, with 94.44 per cent of polling stations counted, he had obtained 55.2 million votes (that is, 55.54 per cent of valid votes). A figure that made it mathematically impossible for Fernando Haddad to overtake him, with Haddad stuck at 44.19 million votes (that is, 44.46 per cent). This brings to an end the run of victories by Lula and Rousseff's PT, which had continued since 2002.

Update 28 October, 3.30pm. Voting operations are proceeding normally. The first official results are expected at 7pm Brasília time, which corresponds to 11pm in Italy.

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Today, 28 October, Brazil faces the most eagerly awaited and debated electoral appointment in recent years: one that pits far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro against Fernando Haddad of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), the same party as Lula and Dilma Rousseff.

How the first round went and what the polls are predicting

The first round of the Brazilian elections, held on 7 October, saw 13 presidential candidates compete, but had one undisputed winner: Jair Bolsonaro. More than 49 million citizens chose his name on the ballot, granting him 46 per cent of the vote. His lead over his closest rival Fernando Haddad — who failed to reach 30 per cent — was overwhelming (more than sixteen percentage points). Behind him came Ciro Gomes (a former minister in Lula's government and a member of the centre-left Democratic Labour Party), with just under 12.5 per cent of the vote, and the outgoing governor of the state of São Paulo, Gerardo Alckmin, who failed to reach 5 per cent.

Read also: Brazilian elections: attacks on homosexuals multiply after the far right's surge

All polls currently show Bolsonaro ahead in the run-off too. According to Datafolha he will win 50 per cent of the vote, against 35 per cent for Bolsonaro (the remaining 15 per cent comprising blank or spoiled ballots). Ibope's figures are similar (52 per cent against 37 per cent), while the Poder360 institute predicts he will win with 57 per cent of the vote, against 31 per cent for Haddad.

What to expect from a possible Bolsonaro victory

In the three weeks since the first round, attempts have been made on many fronts to imagine how Brazilian politics might change with a Jair Bolsonaro victory. A prospect that until a few months ago would have seemed very remote to everyone (the former military officer is in his seventh term, but until now his camp had always had very limited representation in parliament), yet now appears more than plausible.

The so-called "Brazilian Donald Trump" has made a name for himself through his racist, homophobic and misogynistic positions, as well as his openly declared admiration for the military dictatorship that ruled the country for twenty years.

During a recent press conference, the far-right leader sought to tone things down, even at the cost of openly contradicting what he had previously stated. For instance, he denied wanting to pick a fight with neighbouring Venezuela, which he had sharply criticised on multiple occasions. He also promised to remain within the Paris Agreement on climate; on the condition, however, that this does not entail a cession of sovereignty in favour of the indigenous peoples who inhabit the Amazon. The fact remains that those who have openly declared their support for him are the giants of agribusiness and mining.

Meanwhile, Chinese diplomats are scrambling to open a dialogue. As Reuters reports, the Asian giant has invested 124 billion dollars in Brazil over the past fifteen years, and in 2017 alone trade between the two countries amounted to a volume of 75 billion dollars. But Bolsonaro, just like Donald Trump, does not hesitate to describe Beijing as a predator that "is buying up Brazil".

The protests against Bolsonaro, not only in Brazil

"One cannot remain neutral when choosing between democracy and fascism!" These are the decidedly stark words with which an international petition against Jair Bolsonaro concludes — a petition that has gathered almost 30,000 signatures on the Change.org platform. "The positions this candidate has defended throughout his public life and the ongoing electoral campaign are rooted in xenophobic, racist, misogynistic and homophobic principles. The far-right candidate openly endorses the violent methods employed by military dictatorships, including torture and murder. Positions of this kind are a threat to any free, tolerant and honest society," the document reads.

The first signatories are names well known throughout the world, such as Adolfo Pérez Esquivel, Nobel Peace Prize laureate in 1980, US senator Bernie Sanders, and former Argentine president Cristina Kirchner. As well as former French president François Hollande, intellectuals such as Manuel Castells, Noam Chomsky and Thomas Piketty, and former Uruguayan president José Pepe Mujica.

Cover photo © Fabio Rodrigues Pozzebom/Agência Brasil