Two hundred nations, thousands of government delegates, scientists, representatives of international institutions and NGOs, and hundreds of journalists are today filling the International Convention Centre in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, for the twenty-seventh United Nations world climate conference, COP27, which will close in two weeks' time. The goal: to finally give concrete implementation to the Paris Agreement and the commitments made by the international community on climate.

The world still far from avoiding a climate catastrophe

In particular, there is still a need — despite seven years having now passed since the Agreement reached in December 2015 in the French capital — to map out a path for limiting the rise in average global temperature to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, relative to pre-industrial levels. The pledges made so far by governments around the world fall far short of that goal: even assuming they were honoured in full, temperatures would reach 2.5 degrees. That would mean moving from a state of climate crisis to one of climate catastrophe.

"We still do not have a credible road map for 1.5 degrees," commented the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep). "Even if commitments were kept in full, the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will be around 10 per cent between now and 2030. To avoid a climate disaster, we need to cut them by 45 per cent instead."

"Our policies, our businesses, our infrastructure, our actions must all be aligned with the Paris Agreement," declared the new Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Unfccc), Simon Stiell.

Simon Stiell @simonstiell

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As @unfccc, we will be holding people to account – be they Presidents, Prime Ministers or CEOs.

Our policies, our businesses, our infrastructure, our actions, must all align with the #ParisAgreement.

My signal of change today at the opening of #COP27.

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At COP27, the knot of the relationship between the global North and South

If the principal objective of COP27 is therefore to indicate a clear, unambiguous path shared by the entire world for cutting climate-altering emissions, there are numerous other issues on the delegates' table. First and foremost, as recalled by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, there is a need to "rebuild the relationship of trust between the global North and South."

The reference is to the long-standing question of adaptation finance: developing countries and the poorest nations on Earth bear the least responsibility for climate change, yet suffer its worst consequences. Even with a drastic and immediate reduction in emissions, some of the impacts of global warming are now unavoidable, and they strike precisely the least fortunate regions of the planet — both for geographical reasons and because those countries lack the resources to adapt to the changes under way.

Adaptation: the wealthy world must do its part to help poor countries

For this reason, as far back as COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, the wealthy world had committed to providing 100 billion dollars a year to the poorest and most vulnerable nations, so as to enable them to build dams and shelters, adopt evacuation or relief plans, and make the infrastructure fundamental to their economies more secure. That sum, thirteen years on, has still not been disbursed in full.

The presence of COP27 in Africa — though strongly criticised for Egypt's poor record on human rights — will also represent an opportunity to attempt to put the continent's needs at the top of the agenda. In an op-ed published by the British daily The Guardian, Senegalese president Macky Sall, Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte and French president Emmanuel Macron indicated the need to "radically accelerate adaptation to climate change in Africa and in the world's vulnerable countries." They noted that, for those countries, the economic burden of global warming amounts to some 15 per cent of GDP lost every year.

COP27 in a difficult geopolitical context

The geopolitical and economic context in which COP27 opens does not, however, appear favourable. Not only because of the tensions between Russia and the West linked to the war in Ukraine. But also because of the energy crisis, which rather than driving massive investment in renewables is persuading a number of nations — Italy included — to keep fossil fuels alive. Or to bet on the construction of new nuclear reactors, whose timescales are, however, indisputably incompatible with the need to bring about a drastic reduction in emissions starting immediately.

COP27 @COP27P

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On 7-8 November during #COP27, the Sharm El Sheikh #Climate Implementation Summit will provide a platform of the highest level with a view of creating the much needed political momentum & unity around #climateaction at a difficult moment for the globe.

#TogetherForImplementation

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For this reason it is necessary to revise states' commitments, which are contained in specific documents called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). "Otherwise our planet risks crossing a threshold that will make climate chaos irreversible and will trigger a catastrophic rise in temperature," warned Guterres.

Also on the table: the question of "loss and damage"

Another open question is that of "losses and damages" (loss and damage). That is, what has been conceived as an insurance mechanism to enable the world's poorer nations to repair what is destroyed by, for example, extreme weather events attributable to climate change. Here too, however, the consensus of the more developed countries is required — consensus that, for now, does not exist. On this point, an appeal was launched by the COP27 president, appointed by Egypt, Sameh Shoukry.

"These damages are caused by the increase in emissions produced by advanced economies," noted Sidra Adil, of the Collective for Social Science Research in Karachi, Pakistan, a country frequently struck by extreme events. Meanwhile, according to data from Our World in Data, North America, Europe and Australia alone are responsible for 63 per cent of global CO2 emissions, compared with 3 per cent for Africa and 0.28 per cent for Pakistan.

A road map to make the Paris Agreement operational, new commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, transfers from the global North to the global South for adaptation and reconstruction in the event of damages, and climate justice. Only if each of these knots is untied will COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh be able to be considered a success.