The pressure on coal is growing ever stronger in Europe and North America, where the International Energy Agency (IEA) has recorded a fall in demand due to the increasingly competitive costs of renewable sources and the abundant natural gas reserves built up by governments. In Asia and South-East Asia, by contrast, coal remains the most widely used energy source and continues to sit at the heart of many countries' development policies.

International Energy Agency @IEA

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Our latest analysis identifies a tale of two Europes

• Western Europe is accelerating its coal exit
• Most countries in Eastern Europe haven't announced phase-out policies & a handful of new plants are under construction in Poland, Greece & the Balkans bit.ly/2PO8kRg

♥ 33 18 dic 2018 · Apri su X →

Less coal in Europe and North America, but demand grows in Asia

According to IEA forecasts, compiled in the Coal 2018 report, from 2019 onwards and for at least the next five years, global coal demand is expected to remain stable. This absence of growth is due to lower demand from Europe and North America, diluted, however, by the strong growth in demand from India and South-East Asia. More climate- and environment-conscious policies and the growth of clean technologies will help reduce coal's contribution to the global energy mix, bringing it down from the 27 per cent recorded in 2017 to 25 per cent by 2023.

Emerging economies' growth built on coal

The challenge in reducing coal use is tied to demand coming above all from certain Asian countries, where this source guarantees a continuous supply of energy at affordable prices. In India, coal use is growing at a rate of 3.9 per cent per year which, although slowing, still means tonnes and tonnes of pollutants released into the air. The country, despite working to expand renewable sources on a large scale and to adopt state-of-the-art technologies in coal-fired power plants, has not managed to reduce its reliance on coal sufficiently. A similar situation is found in Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Pakistan, where IEA forecasts anticipate further increases in coal use.

In China, the game is played on the price of coal

As far as China is concerned, the International Energy Agency sees coal use declining by around 3 per cent by 2023. This is a result that should be achieved thanks to the policies adopted by Beijing to reduce air pollution, a highly problematic issue particularly in certain parts of the country. Today China accounts for almost half of global coal consumption: developments in the Chinese coal sector can influence prices not only of the coal commodity itself but also of gas and electricity worldwide. This places the Chinese coal sector at the centre of the global energy scene.

Energy security and the development of new technologies

It is clear that the issue of coal and its phase-out plays out on a global level, and is highly complex. "The story of coal is a story of two worlds, with climate action policies and economic forces driving the closure of coal-fired power plants in some countries, while coal continues to play a role in ensuring access to affordable energy in others," said Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security at the IEA. This is why the Agency believes it is necessary to invest in ensuring energy security, particularly in the countries of South and South-East Asia, supporting their economic development without doing so at the expense of the environment. "Addressing our long-term climate goals, tackling the urgent health impacts caused by air pollution and ensuring that more people around the world have access to energy will require an approach that marries strong policies with innovative technologies," Sadamori continued. Achieving all of this requires deploying every option available: not only more renewable sources, but also greater energy efficiency, sources such as hydrogen and much more made possible by technological advances.

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