It is possible to phase out coal by 2025, accelerating the transition towards a sharp reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement on climate. This is what the WWF argues in a study commissioned from Ref-e, an institute for energy economics and regulation research, in light of what will shortly be the final version of the National Energy Strategy (Sen).

Europe off coal

There are now many European countries that have decided to phase out coal, foremost among them Belgium, which did so as far back as 2016, followed by France (2022), and then Great Britain (2025). The Netherlands has provided for it from 2030 in its coalition government agreement. Then there are Finland, Portugal, Ireland, Austria, Sweden and Denmark, which are deciding to phase out coal by 2025.

Phasing out coal is possible

The WWF believes that Italy can make a clear and concrete decision to close all coal-fired power plants, especially in light of the fact that coal's share of our production system weighs relatively little in terms of electricity generated (12–16 per cent), yet weighs heavily in terms of pollution and climate-altering emissions (approximately 40 per cent of the electricity sector's emissions).

The environmental association's position is backed by Ref-e's research, which finds that it is possible to phase out coal by 2025 without increasing the installed capacity of gas-fired power plants, simply by stepping up the development of storage systems and renewable sources, strengthening grid infrastructure and enabling active demand-side participation in markets.

What a coal-free Italy would look like

According to the study, the impacts of the coal phase-out would be reflected in prices only in the short term, subsequently offset by a reduction in the overall cost of fossil fuel procurement and coverage of emission allowances under the European Emission Trading Scheme of approximately 0.6 billion euros per year by 2025 and 1 billion euros per year by 2030. The scenario also envisages, among other things, lower gas capacity development costs of 2 billion euros, including 3,000 MW of combined cycle plants and gas infrastructure in Sardinia.

Costs aside, there is always the important issue of emissions: with the coal phase-out, a reduction of 20 MtCO2 per year is estimated for 2025, falling to 17 by 2030. In total, over the five-year period 2025–2030, a reduction in emissions of 100 MtCO2 is estimated. This reduction translates into economic savings of 2.5 billion euros thanks to the avoided purchase of emission allowances.

From the perspective of meeting energy demand, the WWF's scenario envisages that this can be guaranteed to acceptable standards by including the development of 1,000 MW of storage and active demand-side participation in the supply of flexibility services to the system, and by assuming, in addition to the strengthening of the transmission grid as provided for in Terna's Development Plan to 2025, the doubling of the Sardinia–Italy cable.

There is then the specific issue of Sardinia, for which the coverage of the island's energy needs is envisaged through an increase in renewable sources, the strengthening of connections with the mainland for a further 1,000 MW and the installation of at least 250 MW of energy storage systems. The scenario does not contemplate recourse to natural gas power plants or the development of the associated infrastructure.

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