Temperatures higher than at any point in 20,000 years, snowfall down by nearly 60 centimetres compared to 1950, and worsening aridity that inevitably fuels wildfires. This is the situation in Yellowstone national park, the oldest in the United States, as captured by a new report developed by the United States Geological Survey (Usgs) — a scientific government agency that studies the American landscape and its resources — together with the universities of Montana and Wyoming.

The study, released on 23 June, gathered extremely detailed data on the climatic and environmental changes taking place in the park area, located in the north-west of the United States, and then attempted to formulate a series of projections about what could happen between now and 2100 depending on the amount of CO2 that will be emitted.

The picture is not rosy: according to experts, temperatures have already risen by 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit over the period studied, and could increase by a further 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. At the same time, rainfall will increase by 9–15 per cent; the heat, however, combined with a higher rate of water evaporation, can only worsen soil drought.

In summer, therefore, the loss of soil moisture could place local ecosystems under stress, causing fires and periods of drought, while the cities of Bozeman (in Montana) and Cody and Jackson (in Wyoming), in the areas bordering the park, will experience temperatures above 32 degrees for 40 to 60 more days than current averages.

"An area I love"

Yellowstone national park covers an area of nearly 9,000 square kilometres and straddles the border between Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. "Developing the report was a challenge because these territories are quite conservative from a political standpoint, and climate change is probably not a priority," Cathy Whitlock, professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Montana who collaborated on drafting the report, tells LifeGate. "These are places I know and love, which is why I wanted to produce a very precise assessment of the situation in the Greater Yellowstone area," a term that refers to the entire ecosystem that has developed within the park and in the areas surrounding the nature reserve.

According to Whitlock, Yellowstone national park, with its four million visitors a year, represents a great opportunity to raise awareness and attract public attention to the threat of the climate crisis. The report's authors indeed intend to share the findings with local communities in order to strengthen the conversation and gather ideas and concerns. "We will go and talk to people, especially those who live in the area, to discuss global warming, its implications and concrete consequences, so as to keep the dialogue alive," Whitlock continues.

The involvement of local communities

The involvement of local communities was from the outset one of the key elements guiding the composition of the Greater Yellowstone climate assessment. Fundamental in this regard was the role played by the Greater Yellowstone coalition (Gyc), a local organisation that since 1983 has been fighting to protect the park's ecosystem.

To contribute to the report, the coalition assembled a team of social science experts and collaborated with the National park service and the universities of Montana, Idaho and Wyoming. "We drew up a questionnaire with ten questions, then went into the field to meet various types of people connected in some way to the park," Charles Drimal, Gyc's water conservation coordinator, explains to us. Among those interviewed are farmers, tourism entrepreneurs, local flora and fauna experts, government representatives and members of the tribal communities living in the vicinity of the protected area.

The coalition interviewed 44 people in total, incorporating their comments into the report. According to Drimal, the involvement of local communities "is what makes this study unique — it consists of a combination of scientific information and comments drawn from real life. From the outset we wanted to incorporate [into the document, ed.] the voices of the Greater Yellowstone area and their different perspectives on climate change."

The importance of communication

According to Steven Hostetler, a researcher at Usgs and one of the authors of the Greater Yellowstone climate assessment, the main purpose of the study "is not to advise on what to do or not to do, but to share information scientifically and accurately. This puts us all on the same footing to talk about adaptation, planning and action." It is precisely for this reason that one of the main challenges was "telling the data in simple, accessible language for the general public."

The local population, however, proved receptive to the report's conclusions and interested in following and deepening the discussion. "I think everyone is aware that things are changing, and changing rapidly," says Drimal. "Everyone may have different goals, but we certainly found a good level of participation."

Cathy Whitlock knows this well too: since 2017 she has been travelling around Montana, her home state, to raise citizens' awareness of the risks and consequences of the climate crisis. In four years of activism the scientist has held meetings and events at schools, town halls, care homes and public gatherings. "I've spoken with many people, most of them quite conservative. But everyone listened with interest, because they can see the effects of global warming with their own eyes. Especially those who work in agriculture," she points out in a phone conversation with LifeGate.

Starting this coming autumn, the authors of the Greater Yellowstone climate assessment will launch an awareness campaign to share the findings of their study in the areas surrounding the park. Dialogue with communities is, indeed, a fundamental component when it comes to spreading awareness about the places in which we live day to day.