The Mediterranean is among the ecosystems that WWF has identified as habitats of irreplaceable biodiversity — where animals and plants will die, if we do nothing.
Half of all animal and plant species living in the planet's most biodiversity-rich places risk extinction within the next 60 years. This is the worst-case scenario — that is, if we take no action to curb the rise in global temperature, a scenario scientists call "business as usual".
If states honour the commitments made under the Paris Agreement on climate, the percentage of species at risk of disappearing falls to 25 per cent — a figure that is nonetheless alarming. This is announced by WWF, in a report that reveals how many of the Earth's most fascinating places "could become unrecognisable to our children's eyes". This is due to droughts, floods, extreme weather events, and the inability of organisms to adapt to environmental changes.
WWF, together with researchers from the University of East Anglia and James Cook University, examined more than 80,000 species across 35 regions of the Earth, selected as priority areas because of their uniqueness and relevance for conservation. These include places such as the Amazon, Madagascar and south-western Australia, as well as the Mediterranean Sea. By studying how living organisms respond to climate change, the scientists drew up projections of what could happen under three different scenarios: a temperature rise of 4.5 degrees — the one set to occur if we take no action whatsoever — an increase of 3.2 degrees, which at present appears to be the most plausible option, and finally a rise of 2 degrees, as hoped for under the Paris Agreement.
If the temperature were to rise by 3.2 degrees as projected, the Amazon risks losing 59 per cent of its plant species, 50 per cent of its mammals and as many as 62 per cent of its amphibians. The most vulnerable area is the miombo biome, which covers much of central and southern Africa and is characterised by open woodland and small trees that are home to herbivorous mammals such as rhinoceroses, zebras and giraffes. There, if the temperature were to rise by 4.5 degrees, 80 per cent of these animals could become extinct, 90 per cent of amphibians would be at risk, as would 81 per cent of plants.
The Mediterranean Sea, included in the list of priority areas, is an important breeding site for three species of sea turtle: the leatherback turtle, the green turtle and the loggerhead turtle. According to WWF, "the temperature of the sand where turtles lay their eggs is a factor that determines the sex of the hatchlings. High temperatures can result in clutches of only females or, above a certain value, in no survivors at all." Even in the best-case scenario — that is, a temperature rise not exceeding 2 degrees Celsius — more than 20 per cent of birds, mammals and amphibians risk extinction, a figure that rises to 36 per cent in the case of plant species.
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"Magnificent icons such as Amur tigers or Javan rhinoceroses, which have lived on Earth for 40 million years, risk disappearing, as do tens of thousands of plants and other small creatures that are fundamental to life on Earth," is the sobering view of Donatella Bianchi, president of WWF Italy. Many areas are expected to see higher maximum temperatures, lower rainfall and longer droughts. While these figures are alarming, one must also look at the other side of the coin. If we manage to prevent a temperature rise of more than 2 degrees, 56 per cent of the surface area included in the priority zones will remain climatically suitable for the survival of species — a figure considerably higher than the 18 per cent associated with a rise of 4.5°C.
While on the one hand WWF suggests species migration towards less vulnerable ecosystems as one of the possible solutions, on the other it underscores how important it is that countries keep their promises and continue to commit to reducing CO2 emissions — something to which all of us can contribute. In addition, WWF aims to work in every priority area to increase the extent and integrity of protected areas, to create ecological corridors and climate refuges.
