According to American projections, the Ukrainian crisis could escalate as early as this week with Russian military intervention. But Moscow denies it. According to American projections, the Ukrainian crisis could escalate as early as this week with Russian military intervention. But Moscow denies it.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen as early as Wednesday 16 February. This was revealed by some US intelligence officials, who stress that from that date onwards any day could be the decisive one. In recent days, United States National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan had already said that war in Ukraine could break out before the end of the Winter Olympic Games, that is, during this week.
Russia continues to dismiss American projections as mere propaganda and reiterates that it has no plans to invade, despite the number of soldiers at the border now standing at around 150,000. Diplomatic efforts to reach a peaceful resolution to the dispute are meanwhile ongoing, so far without success.
The most significant moment in the Ukrainian crisis came on the afternoon of Saturday 12 February. Russian president Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Joe Biden spoke by telephone, in a conversation regarded as a last-ditch attempt to avert a conflict. It ended without result and both parties hung up dissatisfied: Moscow received no reassurances about an easing of Nato pressure on Ukraine, while Washington received none about whether an invasion of Ukrainian territory is not in Russia's plans.
Previously there had been a dialogue between Putin and French president Emmanuel Macron, during which Moscow accused the United States of engaging in anti-Russian propaganda. At this point it is the turn of German chancellor Olaf Scholz to travel to Russia, following a stop in Kyiv, to speak with the respective presidents. Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio is also preparing to do the same. Meanwhile Ukraine too has declared that it requested a meeting with Russian authorities, which was apparently rejected.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has meanwhile declared that "we are ready for any development of events related to Russian aggression", a statement that sounds like a call to alert. At the same time, however, Kyiv says it is convinced that a diplomatic solution to the crisis is still possible and that there is no evidence of an imminent Russian attack. For Ukrainian presidential spokesman Serhiy Nikiforov, Kyiv's accession to Nato remains an absolute priority, a position that will not go down well in Moscow.
While diplomacy remains very active and efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis peacefully are ongoing — suggesting that war may for now be averted — events on the ground tell a different story. In recent hours, the majority of European countries have evacuated their diplomatic staff from the country, also urging their own nationals to leave. A message that also came from the Farnesina with regard to Italian citizens, while the French ambassador to Kyiv, Etienne de Poncins, asked those French nationals who choose to remain on Ukrainian territory to stock up on water, food and warm clothing and to make sure their car's fuel tank is full. International airlines have meanwhile stopped overflying Ukrainian airspace for safety reasons.
Indeed, the United States National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, has stated that the Russian invasion of Ukraine could take place as early as before the end of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games, that is, this week. Some US intelligence officials have even spoken of Wednesday 16 February as the first concrete risk date to mark on the calendar. In recent weeks it was thought that a possible attack by Moscow would not occur before the end of the month, given the request from its friend China to wait until the Olympic showcase had concluded so as not to put it in a difficult position. But the scenario now appears to have changed.
Meanwhile, the number of Russian soldiers mobilised at the border has risen to at least 130,000, though some speak of 150,000. Of these, more than 30,000 have been deployed to Crimea, the territory annexed by Russia in 2014 through a referendum that part of the international community has never recognised. In Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine, military exercises are continuing, with increasing numbers of civilians taking part, children and elderly people included. And in neighbouring countries, such as Poland, preparations are under way to receive the flow of refugees should war in Ukraine actually break out.
If you would like to know how the crisis in Ukraine began, read our previous in-depth pieces here and here.
