The first climate refugees to leave the island nation of Tuvalu have arrived in Australia. The announcement was made by the authorities in Canberra: this is the first tranche linked to the agreement signed between the two countries in 2023, under which approximately one third of the archipelago's 11,000 inhabitants will be able to settle on Australian territory, as their homeland is disappearing due to climate change.

What the agreement between Tuvalu and Australia on climate refugees provides for

The deal reached two years ago established that the large Oceanian nation would grant climate asylum to the inhabitants of Tuvalu. This is intended to allow them to seek refuge with the aim of working, studying, and living. Overall, however, only 280 residence permits will be granted each year, in order to avoid a sudden depopulation of the nine atolls that make up the island nation, which covers just 26 square kilometres, two hours' flight from the Fiji Islands.

Reuters ✓ @Reuters

𝕏

The first climate migrants to leave the remote Pacific island nation of Tuvalu have arrived in Australia, hoping to preserve links to their sinking island home, foreign affairs officials said reut.rs/3MtGZXK

♥ 19💬 14 11 dic 2025 · Apri su X →

Tuvalu is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the effects of climate change. The rise in average global temperature is causing the melting of polar ice caps and Arctic glaciers, which in turn is driving a rise in ocean levels. This phenomenon will worsen over the coming decades, to the point of submerging not only numerous coastal areas around the world, but entire states, or parts of them. The Republic of Kiribati is another example of this.

By 2050, at least between 50 and 90 per cent of the Funafuti atoll will be underwater

It is precisely for this reason that the governments of the Pacific atolls have long been organising to protect their populations. In a statement issued to the Reuters news agency, Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong recalled that the agreement with Tuvalu offers a "dignified" solution to the archipelago's climate refugees, in the face of "worsening climate change impacts".

In particular, according to scientists, by 2050 half of the Funafuti atoll — where 60 per cent of Tuvalu's population lives — will already be submerged. The most negative scenarios suggest that the figure could reach as high as 90 per cent. The only option remaining is flight: Australia has also established support services for families relocating to the cities of Melbourne and Adelaide, as well as to the state of Queensland.

The World Bank: by 2050, 216 million climate refugees

But the inhabitants of Tuvalu also face another challenge: that of keeping their cultural roots alive. Prime Minister Feleti Teo paid a visit in November to the Tuvaluan community already established in Melbourne, with the express aim of emphasising the need not to lose the traditions and history of the island state.

The phenomenon of climate migrants, moreover, is one that will spare no nation in the world, including the wealthiest on the planet. According to a World Bank study, the consequences of global warming could force 216 million people to abandon their lands and migrate by 2050. In particular, the drivers of displacement will be declining agricultural production, water shortages, and the aforementioned rise in sea levels.

Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific on the front line

In particular, it is from sub-Saharan Africa that the largest share of displaced women and men is expected to come: climate migrants could number 86 million. In second place is East Asia together with the Pacific, with 49 million. Third comes South Asia with 40 million, while North Africa will see 19 million departures and Latin America 17 million. Last is the area of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, with 5 million.

Another international study, in 2021, warned that for every additional degree of average global temperature, climate migrants will increase by 50 per cent worldwide. The study published in Environmental Research Letters highlighted that, from 2008 alone, natural disasters had by four years ago already caused 288 million climate migrants — three times more than those resulting from wars, conflicts and violence.